Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 338 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Sep 29 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday and Monday... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Northern/Central Plains on Sunday and Monday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest... An upper-level low over the Ohio Valley will slowly weaken and move eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday. A rich pool of moisture extends from the Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley, and then the Mid-Atlantic will be impacted by upper-level dynamics to produce heavy rain over parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues, however, over a slightly smaller area. Once again, the moisture and upper-level energy will aid in producing heavy rain over parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic from Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, a dry front will move from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern Plains by Tuesday. Ahead of the front, an upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest to the Northern/Central Plains. The warm air associated with the upper-level ridge, strong gust wind, and dry fuels have prompted a Critical Risk of fire weather over the North/Central Plains from Sunday through Monday. The front will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Great Lakes overnight Monday into Tuesday. Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create high temperatures over Southeastern California and the Southwest that will range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php