Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 251 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 00Z Mon Sep 30 2024 - 00Z Wed Oct 02 2024 ...Additional heavy rains possible across portions of the Central Appalachians, but an end is in sight for the recent very wet pattern... ...Record heat to continue across California into the Desert Southwest... ...An elevated to critical fire weather threat continues from the Central to Northern Plains into the Great Basin and Northwest... The mid to upper level closed low initially across the Ohio to Tennessee Valley region will continue to be a heavy precipitation producer over the next two days as it pushes very slowly eastward and begins to weaken. Areas of moderate to heavy rain are expected on the east and northeast portion of this circulation where sustained low level east southeasterly flow in an axis of much above average moisture values will impact areas of the Central Appalachians from West Virginia into northwest Virginia and far western Maryland. Across these areas, additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible, with localized totals approaching 5 inches. These rains will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rains over the past several days. With soils saturated and stream flows well above average from these recent rains, flash and river flooding will be a significant concern, with flood watches currently in effect across these regions. The good news is that this mid to upper level low will weaken and push off the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, bringing a period of much drier weather for this area. No let up in sight to the potential for record heat across large portions of California into the Desert Southwest over the next few days. An upper ridge is forecast to re-strengthen from California into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest, supporting an expansion of major heat risk conditions across much of California into southern Nevada and southwest Arizona. High temperatures are expected to be 10 to 20 degrees above average both Monday and Tuesday across these areas, supporting the potential for numerous record high temperatures. Excessive heat warnings are currently in effect across western to southwest Arizona into far southern Nevada and portions of southeast California, while heat advisories are in effect over portions of coastal central to northern California. These Excessive Heat Warnings and heat advisories are currently affecting nearly 21 million people. An elevated to critical fire weather threat will continue today into Monday from portions of the Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies, eastward into the Northern to Central Plains. A fast moving strong cold front will be moving eastward across these areas with gusty winds both ahead of and behind this front. Little if any precipitation is expected with this front, with the low relative humidities and high winds contributing to the significant threat of fire weather conditions. Currently Red Flag warnings are in effect across these areas, affecting over 3 million people. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php