Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 349 AM EDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 ...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Florida on Tuesday... ...There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Northern High Plains on Tuesday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of Southern California and the Southwest... Upper-level energy over the Mid-Atlantic will slowly advance off the Eastern Seaboard by late Tuesday night. Lingering moisture and upper-level energy will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida producing areas of moderate to heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Florida through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Plains moves eastward to the Northeast and weakens. On Tuesday, the front will produce light rain over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and by Tuesday afternoon, rain will expand along the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley. Light rain moves into the Lower Great Lakes/Central Appalachians by Wednesday and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida from Tuesday into Thursday. Further, upper-level ridging over the Northern Intermountain Region into the Northern Rockies will create warm air associated with down-sloping air, strong gust wind, and dry fuels, prompting a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the North High Plains on Tuesday. Elsewhere, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will move inland to the Great Lakes by Thursday. The system will produce scattered showers over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest, ranging from the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of Southern California and the Southwest. Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest. Remember, Heat is the Deadliest Weather Phenomenon in the U.S.! People spending more time outdoors or in a building without cooling are at an increased risk of heat-related illness. Visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat and check local media and government websites for cooling center information. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php