Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024 ...Record-breaking heat remains across California and the Southwest through this weekend, while also building into the central United States on Saturday... ...Strong winds and dangerous fire weather concerns forecast throughout the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and into the northern/central Plains... ...Locally heavy rain possible across the immediate Gulf Coast as unsettled weather develops in the Gulf of Mexico... A Fall heatwave will continue into the weekend over portions of the Desert Southwest and central/southern California as a persistent trend of upper-ridging over the region remains in place. Numerous record-tying/breaking highs are forecast as temperatures soar once again into the upper 90s to 100s. Heat-related advisories/warnings are in place as the heat remains at levels dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling or hydration. While not quite as hot, temperatures will still be well-above average Friday elsewhere across the Interior West, with highs well into the 80s for many locations across the northern/central Rockies and Great Basin. A cold front will bring cooler, more Fall-like temperatures to the northern Great Basin/Rockies on Saturday. Higher heights will also expand eastward over the central United States on Saturday helping to spread much above average temperatures into portions of the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast highs in the 80s to low 90s in the Upper Midwest and as high as the mid-90s in the central Plains are upwards of 20 degrees above average, with record-tying/breaking highs possible here as well. A fast-moving upper-level wave/accompanying surface frontal system will pass along the northern tier of the West and into the central U.S. over the next couple of days. Some moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Pacific Northwest on Friday, with some lighter showers into the northern Rockies. Additional showers/storms will accompany the system as it reaches the Upper Great Lakes later Saturday and into the early morning hours Sunday. However, the bigger story will be widespread gusty winds and high fire danger with the fast moving system as it passes through the northern Great Basin/Rockies Friday and into the northern High Plains Saturday. Wind-related watches and warnings have been issued as gusts higher than 60 mph can be expected, leading to risk of blowing debris, potential property damage, and isolated power outages, as well as difficult travel conditions especially for high-profile vehicles. In addition, the gusty winds and very dry conditions ahead of the approaching cold front with the system will bring an increased threat for wildfires. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Critical Risk (level 2/3) of Fire Weather over portions of the northern Great Basin and central/eastern Wyoming Friday, and the central Rockies into the central Plains on Saturday. Much of the rest of the region is under Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches. Enhanced tropical moisture along the Gulf Coast will lead to periods of moderate to locally heavy showers for the next few days. The lack of a focusing system/boundary and scattered nature of the storms currently suggests a low risk for flash flooding, but an isolated instance or two of flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, some light to moderate showers can be expected with a cold frontal passage through the Northeast late Friday/early Saturday. High temperatures will generally be at to a bit above average for the eastern U.S., with widespread 70s to the north and 80s in the South. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php