Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Oct 06 2024 - 00Z Tue Oct 08 2024 ...Record-breaking heat will continue across California and the Southwest through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week... ...Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast to persist through this evening across the central Rockies and into the central Plains... ...Tropical Storm Milton forms over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is expected to steadily intensify as it moves northeastward... ...Rainfall well ahead of Tropical Storm Milton will arrive across the Florida Peninsula and Keys bringing increasing concerns for flooding... A record-breaking late-season heat wave will continue through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week across central and southern California and the Desert Southwest as a ridge of high pressure aloft persists over the region. Forecast highs will once again soar into the upper 90s to low 100s outside of the immediate coastal areas of central and southern California, with high temperatures reaching as high as the low 110s for the interior portions of the Desert Southwest. Numerous daily record-tying or record-breaking high temperatures are expected to occur across the region going through Monday. Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as this persistent level of major to extreme heat remains a danger to anyone without adequate air-conditioning or hydration, and for those spending greater time outdoors. After a brief period of more seasonable temperatures to the north following a cold frontal passage, highs will trend above average again for most of the rest of the Intermountain West on Sunday and these very warm temperatures will also spread east out into the Plains early next week. In fact, by Monday and Tuesday, some areas of the northern Plains are expected to see high temperatures reach 20 degrees above average. Very warm and windy conditions over areas of the central Rockies and out across the central Plains going through this evening just south of a cold front will also be maintaining dangerous fire weather conditions, which should improve later tonight and on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas from northern Colorado, southern Wyoming through central Nebraska and southern South Dakota in a Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3). Widespread Red Flag Warnings cover much of this region due to wildfire risk. Meanwhile, farther east, greater moisture out ahead of the same cold front will lead to areas of some showers and thunderstorms across the Upper Great Lakes region going through this evening and the overnight period. A Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) has been introduced by the Storm Prediction Center for northern Wisconsin and parts of the U.P. of Michigan. Some areas of large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across these areas. On Sunday, as the cold front moves east into the Lower Great Lakes region and parts of the Upper Ohio Valley, showers and thunderstorms will be expected here. A Slight Risk of severe weather has also been depicted on Sunday for eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and western New York where a threat of some large hail and damaging wind gusts will exist. Tropical Storm Milton has formed over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to gradually move off to the northeast over the next few days while steadily intensifying. Areas of locally heavy rain are expected to arrive though across the Florida Peninsula and Keys well ahead of the intensifying storm as moisture pooling along a front coupled with proximity of a separate area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico helps to concentrate areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Coastal areas of the central and southern parts of the Florida Peninsula may see locally several inches of rain just through Monday, and this will lead to an increasing threat for areas of flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has locally depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 2/4) as a result. For the very latest on Tropical Storm Milton, please consult the latest National Hurricane Center advisories. Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php