Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 08 2024 ...Tropical Storm Milton continues to intensify over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is expected to move northeastward towards the Florida Gulf Coast... ...Very heavy rainfall well ahead of Tropical Storm Milton will arrive across the Florida Peninsula and Keys bringing the threat of flash flooding... ...Showers and thunderstorms expected for portions of the interior Northeast Sunday with the threat for some large hail and damaging winds... ...Record-breaking heat will continue across California and the Southwest through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week... Tropical Storm Milton continues to intensify in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to move northeastward towards the Gulf Coast of Florida, with a possible landfall on Wednesday. However, potentially significant flooding impacts are expected well ahead of the storm as anomalously moist tropical air and instability increase south of a wavy frontal boundary draped across the Florida Peninsula. There is now a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) Sunday over South Florida for a more concentrated corridor of thunderstorms producing intense downpours with totals that could exceed 5". This will bring a more significant risk of scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding in urban areas. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) extends north along the Atlantic Coast and also west along the Gulf Coast through the central Peninsula for additional scattered instances of flash flooding. Another Slight Risk on Monday covers the Atlantic Coast of the central Peninsula as well as the southwestern Gulf Coast and South Florida as the threat for thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall and flash flooding continues. Follow the latest forecast from the NHC for updated information on the expected track and potential impacts mid-week. An upper-level wave/surface frontal system will pass through areas of the interior Northeast including the Appalachians, Lower Great Lakes, and the Upper Ohio Valley Sunday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Sufficient instability ahead of the front as well as strong flow at the low and mid-levels may lead to some more robust, severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted western New York and Pennsylvania as well as eastern Ohio and the northern Panhandle of West Virginia with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather mainly for the threat of large hail and damaging winds. The SPC has also noted that gusty winds and dry conditions behind a trailing cold front extending to the southwest through the Midwest and into the central Plains will lead to an Elevated Risk of fire weather. As the system continues eastward, showers and thunderstorms will spread into the northern Mid-Atlantic late Sunday/early Monday and into New England during the day Monday. Most of the rest of the country will be without precipitation chances the next couple of days expect the Pacific Northwest where rain chances will pick up by later Monday ahead of a Pacific system. A record-breaking late-season heat wave continues this weekend and into early next week across central and southern California and the Desert Southwest as a ridge of high pressure aloft persists over the region. Forecast highs continue to soar into the upper 90s to low 100s outside of the immediate coastal areas of central and southern California, with high temperatures reaching as high as the low 110s for the interior portions of the Desert Southwest. Numerous daily record-tying or record-breaking high temperatures are expected to occur across the region going through Monday. Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as this persistent level of major to extreme heat remains a danger to anyone without adequate air-conditioning or hydration, and for those spending greater time outdoors. While not quite as hot, highs will trend above average again for most of the rest of the Intermountain West as well, with highs in the 70s and low 80s for the northern Great Basin/Rockies and into the mid-80s for the central Great Basin. These very warm temperatures will also spread east out into the northern/central Plains early next week. In fact, by Monday and Tuesday, some areas of the northern Plains are expected to see high temperatures upwards of 20 degrees above average, reaching as high as the upper 70s and low 80s. Much of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley will see unseasonably warm temperatures well into the 80s on Sunday. A cold front passage will bring much cooler, more seasonable temperatures to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Monday as highs only top out in the 60s, with 70s into the Tennessee Valley and Mid-South. Further south, hot temperatures will also continue for portions of the southern Plains and Texas, with daily highs remaining in the upper 80s to mid-90s. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php