Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 AM EDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 07 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 09 2024 ...Hurricane Milton continues to intensify over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is expected to move northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula by the middle of the week... ...Very heavy rainfall well ahead of Hurricane Milton brings the threat of flash flooding to the central/southern Florida Peninsula and Keys... ...Record-breaking heat continues early this week for California and the Desert Southwest, with much above average temperatures also expected for the Intermountain West and Plains... Hurricane Milton continues to intensify over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to move northeastward and make landfall along the central Florida Gulf Coast on Wednesday. However, potentially significant flash flooding impacts are expected to continue well ahead of the storm as anomalously moist tropical air and instability increase along a wavy frontal boundary draped across the southern Florida Peninsula. Separate waves of low pressure along this front will favor areas of very heavy to potentially extreme rainfall in a concentrated fashion across portions of South Florida Tuesday, with a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) in effect. This will bring the potential for numerous instances of urban flash flooding. A broader Slight Risk covers the central Atlantic Florida Coast as well as the southwestern Gulf Coast for more scattered instances of flash flooding. A Slight Risk is also in place on Tuesday as one wave departs and ahead of the approach of Hurricane Milton, as locally very heavy rainfall and some scattered instances of flash flooding will remain possible. Please consult the latest NHC public advisories for updated information on the expected track and impacts from Hurricane Milton as it approaches the Florida Gulf Coast mid-week, including life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and a continued threat of very heavy rainfall and widespread flash flooding. Meanwhile, a record-breaking late-season heat wave continues early this week across areas of central and southern California and the Desert Southwest as a ridge of high pressure aloft persists over the region. Forecast highs Monday will once again soar into the upper 90s to low 100s outside of the immediate coastal areas of central and southern California, with high temperatures reaching as high as the low 110s for the interior portions of the Desert Southwest. Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as this persistent level of major to extreme heat remains a danger to anyone without adequate air-conditioning or hydration, and for those spending greater time outdoors. Numerous daily record-tying or record-breaking high temperatures are expected to occur across the region. The one reprieve is that temperatures are expected to slowly drop through the week beginning on Tuesday, with highs a few degrees lower and less heat-related impacts expected. A few daily record-tying/breaking highs still remain possible in the Desert Southwest though. While not quite as hot, highs are also trending well above average for most of the rest of the Intermountain West, with highs in the 70s and low 80s for the northern Great Basin/Rockies and into the mid-80s for the central Great Basin. These very warm temperatures will also spread east out into the northern/central Plains as the ridge of high pressure shifts eastward this week. Forecast highs the next couple of days are in the 70s to low 80s for the northern Plains and into the mid-80s for the central Plains. Forecast highs have continued to remain unseasonably warm for the Southern Plains/Texas, with mid-80s to mid-90s expected. Elsewhere, a cold front moving through New England will bring showers and thunderstorms Monday, with a few storms lingering into Tuesday for Downeast Maine. Forecast highs will be more seasonable for much of the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast following the cold front passage, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The South will be dry and a bit hot on Monday ahead of the cold front, with highs generally in the mid- to upper 80s. Temperatures will drop to more seasonable levels on Tuesday here as well after the cold front passes through, with highs in the 70s to low 80s. A system entering the Pacific Northwest will bring rain chances Tuesday. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php