Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 402 PM EDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 00Z Tue Oct 08 2024 - 00Z Thu Oct 10 2024 ...Hurricane Milton continues to intensify over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and is expected to move northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula by the middle of the week... ...Very heavy rainfall well ahead of Hurricane Milton brings the threat of flash flooding to the central/southern Florida Peninsula and Keys... ...Record-breaking heat continues early this week for California and the Desert Southwest, with much above average temperatures also expected for the Intermountain West and Plains... Hurricane Milton has continued to intensify over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to make landfall Wednesday night over west-central Florida according to the National Hurricane Center. The first threat to address will be heavy rainfall occurring ahead of Hurricane Milton over the Florida peninsula. Much of South Florida is under a Moderate Excessive Rainfall threat (level 3/4) for flash flooding for the remainder of today. The presence of high precipitable water values in conjunction with enhanced lift along a draped stationary front is allowing the possibility for some areas to see over 8 inches of rainfall by the end of the day. Saturated soils and rain bands ahead of Milton will place Florida under a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for flash flooding. Wednesday, the threat for flash flooding increases again as the center of Milton approaches the Florida Gulf Coast and much of central-north Florida will be under a Moderate Excessive Rainfall Outlook again with flash flooding likely. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash,urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Additionally, it is prudent to point out that storm surge will be a big deal with this storm and needs to be prepared for seriously. The high end storm surge totals being forecast by the National Hurricane Center are around 8-12 ft for many areas around the vulnerable Tampa Bay. For more information regarding Milton, please refer to the National Hurricane Center. Meanwhile, a record breaking late season heat wave continues into the early week across central and southern California and the Desert Southwest as high pressure resides over the region. Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect across most of these regions. Highs will hover around the century mark over the California valley for the remainder of Monday before cooling off slightly into the 90s by the middle of the week. The Desert Southwest will see maximum high temperatures in the 100-110 F range through the short term period into Wednesday. For the rest of the country, a Pacific cold front will approach the Northwest by Wednesday and bring rain showers to the region. Ahead of this system, some warm air will surge northward and much of the Plains should start to see increasing temperatues as a warm from lifts north. Highs will be above average in the middle 80s, some of which may be daily record breaking, as far north as the Canadian border. The opposite will be true for most of the East Coast as a cold front has passed through the region and high temperatues will be feeling fall like in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s possible. Most of the area should clear out behind the front, but some of upstate New England and the Great Lakes region may see showers coming off the Great Lakes as upper troughing of low pressure remains. Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php Wilder