Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 08 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 10 2024 ...Hurricane Milton has intensified into a powerful category 5 storm and is expected to make landfall along the west coast of Florida late Wednesday evening... ...Milton will bring life-threatening impacts to much of Florida including a destructive storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and considerable flash and urban flooding... ...Unseasonably hot temperatures expand over much of the western and central U.S., some record-tying/breaking highs possible... Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 4 storm, currently located near the Yucatan Peninsula and forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to track northeastward and make landfall in the Tampa Bay vicinity late Wednesday evening. However, the Hurricane will have wide-reaching impacts far away from the landfall location beginning by early Wednesday and covering the west coast of Florida and much of the central and northern Florida Peninsula. This includes but is not limited to Tampa-St. Petersburg, Sarasota-Bradenton, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Lakeland-Winter Haven, and Orlando. A large area of destructive, potentially catastrophic storm surge will occur along the west coast of Florida on Wednesday, with the highest peak surge forecast to be between 10-15 feet in the Tampa Bay area south to Charlotte Harbor. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread well inland across the entire Florida Peninsula. Areas of heavy rainfall may begin as early as today (Tuesday) for the Peninsula, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect for some scattered flash flooding. Then, by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, the coverage and intensity of rainfall will rapidly increase with the approach and landfall of Milton, particularly for central and northern portions of the Peninsula where a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 4/4) has been issued. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are possible and will lead to significant and considerable flash, urban, and area flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall threat. If Milton remains on its current track, it will be the worst storm to impact the Tampa area in over 100 years, please evacuate if told to do so. In addition, while Hurricane Milton is expected to experience some weakening prior to landfall, the forecast for potentially life-threatening impacts already takes this into account and the devastating winds, destructive storm surge, and considerable flash and urban flooding remains regardless of this weakening. Keep checking the latest forecast from the NHC, WPC, and your local NWS forecast office for the most up-to-date information regarding Milton including track, intensity, and impact information. Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected to expand in coverage over much of the western and central U.S. under the influence of an upper-level ridge of high pressure into mid-week. While forecast highs have come down a few degrees in California and the Desert Southwest following a long-duration heat wave and most heat-related advisories and warnings have expired, conditions will still be unseasonably hot. Forecast highs will be in the 90s for interior central California and into the 100s in the Desert Southwest. Temperatures in general will be upwards of 10-20 degrees above average for many locations, particularly in the northern Plains, where forecast highs Tuesday-Wednesday will reach as high as the mid-80s. Areas of the central Plains will be in the mid- to upper 80s with upper 80s to mid-90s for the southern Plains/Texas. The Great Basin and lower elevations of the Rockies will be into the 80s as well. Elsewhere, some lake-effect showers are expected the next couple of days east of the Lower Great Lakes over New York, with some more spotty showers possible into northern New England as an upper-level low churns overhead. Much of the eastern U.S. will see generally seasonable highs for Fall following a cold front passage, with 50s for the Upper Great Lakes/interior Northeast, 60s for the coastal Northeast, 60s to 70s for the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic, and 70s to low 80s in the South. Some areas of the Upper Great Lakes and interior Northeast may see lows drop into the 30s with some patchy frost possible. A system moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring some showers Tuesday, tapering off Wednesday, with highs in the 60s. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php