Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 338 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Oct 13 2024 - 00Z Tue Oct 15 2024 ...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southeastern Florida Peninsula... ...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Appalachians on Sunday... A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic westward to the Central Plains has a wave of low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley that moves northeastward to Northern New England by Monday evening. The system will produce rain over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Late Sunday night. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley that move into the Northern Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening. Furthermore, rain will develop over parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday evening, extending into the Northeast overnight Saturday. The rain will continue through Monday evening. On Sunday evening, wet snow will develop over parts of the Adirondack Mountains and continue into Monday evening. Moreover, as the front moves into the Central Appalachians on Sunday afternoon, the boundary will produce showers and moderate to severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Appalachians. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Appalachians from Sunday into Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Meanwhile, easterly flow off the Atlantic will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain over parts of southeastern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of southeastern Florida through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Over the West Coast, weak onshore flow will create light rain over parts of Northern California through late Saturday afternoon. Furthermore, upper-level dynamics associated with an upper-level low over the Great Basin will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin and Central Rockies from Sunday evening through Monday evening. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php