Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 350 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024 ...Unsettled weather forecast from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Northeast over the next few days... ...Record-breaking heat continues across parts of the Southwest and much of the south-central U.S. today... ...Locally heavy rain possible across southeast Florida... A deepening low pressure system progressing from the Lower Great Lakes today towards southern New England by Monday morning along with a trailing upper-level trough will bring unsettled weather to much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to dampen outdoor activities along and north of a sharp warm front extending from northern Pennsylvania to southern New England today. Meanwhile, an attached cold front will sweep across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by this evening, with a few thunderstorms potentially turning severe and containing damaging wind gusts from central Tennessee to eastern West Virginia. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms in order to highlight this potential. As the area of low pressure strengthens further on Monday and Tuesday while lifting northward into eastern Canada, cold air surging southward on the backside of the system will allow for high elevation snow in the Adirondacks and northern New England mountain ranges. Lake effect rain and snow showers will also be evident as cold northerly flow persists through midweek. An autumn chill will spread over much of the Midwest and eastern U.S. following the passage of the aforementioned cold front this week as high temperatures only reach the 50s and 60s, with widespread lows in the 30s and 40s. One more day of record-breaking heat is expected across the south-central and southwestern U.S. today as mild air lingers south of the advancing cold front. Highs into the 90s are anticipated throughout much of the Lone Star State and Lower Mississippi Valley, with triple digits possible in central Texas. 100s are also possible once again in Arizona before a long-awaited gradual cooldown commences by Monday. Well above average temperatures reorient early this week and are most apparent over the western Gulf Coast, northern Rockies, and High Plains. Outside of the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, much of the Nation will be void of notable precipitation over the next few days. However, another localized area of heavy rain potential exists over southeast Florida today before thunderstorm activity pushes east away from the Sunshine State on Monday. A few thunderstorms may exhibit slow forward motion while containing intense rainfall rates over the sensitive urban corridor of southeast Florida, which may lead to localized flash flooding. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect to further highlight this heavy rainfall threat. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php