Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 347 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 17 2024 ...Unsettled weather along with high elevation snow to impact parts of the Northwest, Intermountain West, and northern Rockies over the next few days... ...Below average temperatures forecast across the central and eastern United States, while summer-like warmth remains over portions of Texas today and the northern Plain by Wednesday... The weather pattern over the Lower 48 remains under the influence of a strong high pressure system forecast to span from the Midwest to Gulf Coast this week, before gradually settling over the East to end the week. This will allow for dry conditions over much of the central U.S. and Southeast, with unsettled weather confined to the peripheries of the high pressure system. A pair of cold fronts traversing the Northwest and northern Great Basin will usher in shower chances and high elevation snow over the next few days. The greatest chances for at least 4 inches of snowfall currently exist across the Cascades, Yellowstone region of the northern Rockies, and the northern Utah mountains. Elsewhere, scattered rain and snow showers are likely throughout parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, and Northeast within potent northwest flow aided by a strong low pressure system in southeast Canada. Light snowfall chances are likely to be confined to the higher elevated regions of northern New England as well as the Adirondacks and central Appalachians. A mid-October chill will be noticeable across much of the central and eastern U.S. over the next few days as highs struggle to reach above the 50s for most locations. Low temperatures are also expected to dip well below average for this time of year and into the 30s, leading to widespread frost/freeze opportunities between the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. These autumn conditions will also reach the Gulf Coast, Southeast, and much of the Sunshine State by Wednesday as the cold front sinks southward over the Gulf of Mexico. Above average and summer-like warmth is expected to linger across parts of the country as well, with highs into the upper 90s today threatening daily records throughout central and southeast Texas. However, this warmth will be short-lived as the aforementioned cold front sinks south and into northern Mexico by midweek. Warmer temperatures will then shift to the northern Plains ahead of the western systems and on the northwest side of the large area of high pressure over the Midwest. This pattern will allow for warm southerly flow and afternoon temperatures to reach the 70s and 80s (20 to 30 degrees above average for this time of year). The warm temperatures and low relative humidity when combined with gusty winds and dry terrain are also forecast to produce critical fire weather conditions for parts of the central and northern Plains on Wednesday. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php