Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 16 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 18 2024 ...Significant pattern change begins today across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West with much colder temperatures and the threat of widespread mountain snow through the end of the week... ...Above average temperatures build across the central and northern High Plains with the risk of fire weather increasing through Thursday... ...A chilly mid-October continues for much of the East with frost and freeze concerns from the central U.S. to parts of the Southeast and Appalachians... After some early fall warmth experienced throughout much of the West and Rockies over the last few days vastly different weather conditions are expected through the end of this week. A pair of cold fronts traversing the region are expected to usher in below average temperatures and precipitation chances. Showers are already evident throughout much of the Northwest early this morning and will continue to spread eastward today, before heavier precipitation focuses over the northern/central Rockies and the Intermountain West from Thursday night through early Saturday. The greatest weather hazards associated with this strong cold front are forecast to be from gusty winds and heavy mountain snowfall. Total snowfall accumulation over 8 inches are likely across the highest ranges of south-central Montana, western Wyoming, Utah, and southwest Colorado. Gusty winds may increase the fire weather danger as well and has prompted Red Flag Warnings to be issued across parts of central California, Nevada, and western Utah. Fire weather concerns are also apparent over the central and northern Plains for the next few days as strong southerly flow surges ahead of the western U.S. system. Above average temperatures with highs into the 70s and 80s will produce low relative humidity values and increase wildfire dangers. This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Critical fire weather area for this region through Thursday, spanning from Kansas to South Dakota. Elsewhere, Red Flag Warnings are in effect throughout the central Gulf Coast as strong northerly winds push dry air into the region behind a potent cold front sweeping southward over the Gulf of Mexico. This same cold front has helped an autumn chill settle over most of the central and eastern United States, while a potent high pressure system also anchors over the region. Low temperatures into the 30s and 40s are forecast to be widespread and stretch from the Midwest and Northeast southward to the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. This may create the first frost and freeze concerns of the season for many, marking the transition out of the growing season. High temperatures will also remain below average for this time of year and remain in the 50s and 60s before moderating closer to normal by the end of the week. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php