Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 01 2024 ...Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Southern Cascades and Northern Intermountain Region with a second area over parts of the Upper Midwest on Thursday... ...Temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Wednesday... A wave of low pressure along a front over the Southern High Plains will move northeastward to eastern Quebec, Canada, by Friday. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A warm front over Northern New England will move northeastward into Southeastern Canada by Thursday. Ahead of the warm front, rain will develop over parts of Northern New England, ending by Wednesday evening. On Wednesday, moist air flowing northward over the Plains will extend into the Upper Great Lakes, creating showers and severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central Plains through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Western Gulf Coast from Tuesday into Wednesday. Similarly, easterly flow off the Atlantic will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Thursday morning. In addition, there is an increased threat of EF2 †EF5 tornadoes over the areas. Furthermore, moderate to heavy rain will develop along the front over parts of the Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mississippi Valley and parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley will decrease to strong to severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys from Thursday to Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. In addition, onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Western Gulf Coast and Florida. Moreover, the wave of low pressure will pull cold air over parts of the Upper Midwest, producing moderate to heavy snow over parts of Minnesota, extreme northern Wisconsin, and the western portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. All these areas will be near Lake Superior on Thursday, tapering off by Friday. Meanwhile, another front will come onshore over the Pacific Northwest and California on Wednesday, dissipating by Thursday evening. From late Wednesday morning into Friday, the system will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Northwest into Northern/Central California. On Thursday, the snow will become moderate to heavy over parts of the Southern Cascades and Northern Intermountain Region. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php