Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 336 PM EDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 00Z Sat Nov 02 2024 - 00Z Mon Nov 04 2024 ...Heavy rain and severe weather probable across the Central/Southern Plains this weekend... ...Mountain snow will spread from the Pacific Northwest into much of the Intermountain West over the next couple of days... ...Much above average temperatures expected across large portions of the central to eastern U.S.... A cold front will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into the Northeast by tonight and into the weekend. While less record temperatures are forecast over the next few days across the eastern two-thirds of the country, widespread above average temperatures are expected across large portions of the central to eastern U.S. as a strong dome of high pressure builds across the eastern half of the country. The aforementioned high pressure system which will build across the Northeast this weekend, will continue the dry conditions down the Eastern Seaboard for the first few days of November. Attention will then focus across the Central and Southern Plains as a rather significant heavy rain and severe weather event will emerge this weekend. As moist air from the Gulf of Mexico returns and streams northward into the Southern Plains behind the high pressure system, a deepening upper-level trough will move through the western U.S. This trough will spread more mountain snow across the Intermountain West this weekend. Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will then interact with the returning Gulf moisture over the southern Plains and lift the moisture over a warm front. It appears that moderate to heavy rain associated with organized thunderstorms will first develop over the Southern High Plains tonight. The thunderstorms and heavy rain will then expand northeastward into the Central Plains through the weekend. A few inches of heavy rain with locally higher amounts is forecast across the Southern Plains, with the heaviest rainfall expected across central Oklahoma. Similar to many areas of the Lower 48, this region is experiencing moderate to extreme drought conditions. While this round of heavy rain will help alleviate the drought, the high rainfall rates will also bring an increasing threat of flash flooding. Please stay abreast of the latest forecast updates on this upcoming heavy rain/severe weather event across the central to southern Plains. Kebede/Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php