Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 02 2024 - 12Z Mon Nov 04 2024 ...Frequent rounds of heavy rain and severe weather expected across the central and southern Plains throughout this weekend and into Monday... ...Mountain snow will spread from the Pacific Northwest into much of the Intermountain West over the next couple of days... ...Much above average temperatures expected across large portions of the central to eastern U.S. with no rain in sight along the East Coast... An upper-level trough digging into the western U.S. will be pushing against a ridge of high pressure building across the eastern U.S. This will result an amplifying weather pattern across the mainland U.S. through this weekend, with the most vigorous battle zone occurring over the south-central U.S. As mountain snow being ushered into the western U.S. with the arrival of the upper trough, a large high pressure system will quickly build across the northeastern quadrant of the country today. This high pressure system will settle and expand across the eastern two-thirds of the country this weekend, bringing cooler air into the Northeast. In contrast, widespread above average temperatures are expected from the Plains eastward with no rain in sight along the East Coast into the first few days of November. Attention will then focus across the mid-section of the country where a rather significant heavy rain and severe weather event is currently developing. As moist air from the Gulf of Mexico returns and streams northward into the southern Plains behind the high pressure system, the deepening upper-level trough moving into the western U.S. will spread more mountain snow across the Intermountain West this weekend. Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will then interact with the returning Gulf moisture and lift the moisture over a warm front across the central and southern Plains. Heavy rain associated with organized thunderstorms are currently erupting over the southern High Plains. The thunderstorms and heavy rain will then expand northeastward into the central Plains through the weekend. A few inches of heavy rain with locally higher amounts is forecast across the south-central U.S., with the heaviest rainfall expected across central Oklahoma. Similar to many areas of the Lower 48, this region is experiencing moderate to extreme drought conditions. While this heavy rain event will help alleviate the drought, the expected high rainfall rates will bring an increasing threat of flash flooding. WPC currently has a moderate risk of flash flooding in place from central Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas and into southwestern Missouri from Sunday into early Monday. Please stay abreast of the latest forecast updates on this upcoming heavy rain/severe weather event across the central to southern Plains. This system will also spread some light to moderate rain farther north across the northern Plains, and moderate to locally heavy rain toward the upper Midwest on Sunday into early Monday. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php