Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 344 PM EDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Nov 03 2024 - 00Z Tue Nov 05 2024 ...Frequent rounds of heavy rain and severe weather expected across parts of the central U.S. this weekend and into Monday... ...Mountain snow will spread from the Pacific Northwest into much of the Intermountain West and Rockies over the next couple of days... ...Above average temperatures to build across the Midwest by early next week... An active autumn weather pattern is poised to continue impacting the Nation this weekend into early next week, with heavy rain and severe weather over the central U.S. and mountain snow throughout parts of the West. A gradually lifting warm front spanning from the central Plains to the Tennessee Valley this weekend will help funnel ample atmospheric moisture content northward into much of the central/southern Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a developing area of low pressure in the central High Plains and dryline will squeeze the thunderstorm focus east into northern Texas and Oklahoma through Sunday, with the threat shifting even more eastward by Monday to include parts of Missouri and western Arkansas. The primary weather hazards associated with developing storms will include heavy rainfall, large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The heavy rain and flash flooding threat is anticipated to be greatest from central Oklahoma to southwest Missouri on Sunday as multiple rounds of intense rainfall rates occur over similar regions. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for this region. Although severe to extreme drought conditions are in place, urban and low-lying locations could experience rapid water rises and flooded roadways. Residents and visitors are reminded to never underestimate the power of water and have multiple ways to receive warnings. The amplified upper level pattern will feature cooler temperatures and precipiation throughout the Northwest, Intermountain West, and Rockies over the next few days prior to a stronger storm system swinging inland over the Pacific Northwest on Monday. Mountain snow will be common, with Winter Weather Advisories in effect from the Oregon and Washington Cascades to the higher terrain of Utah and Wyoming. However, the greatest chances (>80%) for over 8 inches of snowfall in a 24-hour period is forecast over the northern Cascades on Monday. Be sure to prepare for winter driving conditions if traveling throughout these elevated mountain ranges and stay tuned to the latest local weather forecast. Warmer and mostly dry conditions will be felt east of the Mississippi River through early next week, besides rain chances entering parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. A large high pressure system situated over the Great Lakes today is forecast to slide eastward on Sunday and off the New England coastline by Monday, ushering in warm southerly flow on the western periphery. This will support widespread above average high temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s from the central/southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic by Monday, with 80s along the Gulf Coast States. When compared to early November climatology, the Midwest is expected to experience temperatures well above average on Monday. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php