Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 235 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 00Z Mon Nov 04 2024 - 00Z Wed Nov 06 2024 ...Heavy rain and severe weather expected across parts of the south-central U.S. through Monday... ...Mountain snow moving across the Intermountain West and Rockies tonight will begin to taper off on Monday as the next round of mountain snow and wind quickly overspreads the Pacific Northwest early this week... ...Above average temperatures approaching record levels will build across the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast... The ongoing active weather system over the south-central U.S. will continue to trigger additional rounds of heavy rain and severe weather for the remainder of today, with the heaviest rainfall expected to impact northern Texas, central to eastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Thunderstorms are likely to produce areas of damaging winds, large hail, as well as a few tornadoes into Monday centered around eastern Oklahoma as a warm and unstable airmass anchors over the region. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms in order to further highlight this potential. More energy ejecting from the upper-level trough currently spreading mountain snow across the Intermountain West will eventually consolidate a low pressure system over the central High Plains by tonight. This low pressure system will track northeastward across the central Plains followed by another low pressure system to develop over the south-central Plains on Monday. This second system is forecast to push a cold front farther eastward Monday night, ending the heavy rain threat across Oklahoma but shifting the heavy rain and severe weather threats into the Arklatex region, Mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest by the beginning of the workweek. The upper trough will usher colder than normal temperatures through much of the western U.S. for the next couple of days with mountain snow passing through the Intermountain region today, followed by the central and southern Rockies on Monday. Meanwhile, a rather strong low pressure system from the Pacific Ocean will quickly spread the next round of coastal rain into the Pacific Northwest on Monday followed by a good dose of mountain snow farther inland along with quite a bit of wind. The mountain snow will reach into the northern Rockies Monday night into Tuesday morning as the low pressure system redevelops over the northern High Plains. The greatest chances (>80%) for over 8 inches of snowfall in a 24-hour period is forecast over the northern Cascades on Monday and northern Rockies on Tuesday. Be sure to prepare for winter driving conditions if traveling throughout these elevated mountain ranges and stay tuned to the latest local weather forecast. Warmer and mostly dry conditions will be felt east of the Mississippi River through early next week, besides rain chances throughout parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. A large high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to slide eastward and off the New England coastline by Monday, ushering in warm southerly flow on the western periphery. This will support widespread above average high temperatures into the upper 60s and 70s from the central/southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic early this week, with 80s along the Gulf Coast States. When compared to early November climatology, the Midwest and upper Ohio Valley is expected to experience temperatures well above average. The anomalous warmth will eventually spread to the East Coast by Election Day as showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front continue throughout the Midwest and Mississippi Valley. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php