Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 312 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Valid 00Z Tue Nov 05 2024 - 00Z Thu Nov 07 2024 ...More heavy rain and severe weather focusing across eastern Oklahoma to the Midwest today will weaken and gradually shift east toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday... ...Next round of mountain snow and wind will quickly overspread into the Pacific Northwest today and progress eastward to the Northern Rockies.. ...Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts associated with Tropical Storm Rafael as it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday... ...Above average temperatures approaching record levels will build across the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast... Heavy Rain and flash flooding is ongoing this Monday afternoon across most of the south-central U.S. A flood watch is active across most of the region, as well as flood warnings and flash flood warnings. A dynamic upper jet pattern, high moisture content in the atmosphere, and a surface front will allow for the possibility of widespread flooding from north Texas to southern Michigan, with a targeted Moderate Excessive Rainfall Outlook over east Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and southern Missouri. Turn around, don't drown. As the system progresses east the threat should diminish, though areas from eastern Texas to southern Illinois will have to watch for some isolated flash flooding potential as a line of storms bring heavy rains on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the focus shifts toward the Southeast as moisture streams ahead of Rafael. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall is active across areas in the Southeast where rainfall may be maximized as a tropical environment interacts with a frontal boundary nearby the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. This forecast will continue to be fine-tuned as the event approaches, so keep updated. Severe weather will also be present in the short term. For the remainder of Monday, the Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk from north Texas to southern Missouri. Hazards include a few strong tornadoes, gusty winds, and some hail. Additionally, Tuesday has a Marginal Risk for severe weather around the central Gulf Coast and Midwest as a front moves through and may produce a strong wind gust or a tornado or two. Wednesday, the approach of Tropical Cyclone Eighteen will favor some waterspouts over the Florida Keys. Weather out West will turn active as another strong upper level trough dips down. For today, a cold front and attendant low pressure system are entering the Pacific Northwest, bringing rain to the coastlines and some moderate snow accumulations in the Cascades. Strong winds will also accompany the low, in addition to winter weather across the mountains, and winter storm warnings and high wind warning are in effect. The front should continue to push across the Rockies and Great Basin, with some areas seeing multiple inches of snowfall from Montana southward to the Four Corners region towards the end of the short term forecast on Wednesday. Behind the strong front, temperatures will plunge as an Arctic air mass invades the region. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s across the valleys and lows may approach the single digits in the cool spots. Make sure to bundle up. From winter weather to tropics, residents along the Gulf Coast should pay attention to Tropical Storm Rafael. Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane and enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Continue to stay weather aware and keep updated with the official information from the National Hurricane Hurricane at nhc.noaa.gov. Lastly, with all this active weather, the Northeast continues to remain dry and quite warm for this time of the year. High temperatures will be in the middle 70s nearing 80 by Wednesday across the urban corridor. The heat will also extend southward along the east coast to the Gulf Coast, where highs will be in the middle 80s; many stations near or eclipse daily record high temperatures across the east coast in key summary. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php