Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 12Z Tue Nov 05 2024 - 12Z Thu Nov 07 2024 ...Heavy rain and severe weather threats shifting east toward the Arklatex, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and into the Midwest/Ohio Valley today... ...Mountain snow and wind will spread south from the northern Rockies today, reaching into much of the central Rockies and Four Corners on Wednesday into Thursday morning... ...Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts associated with Tropical Storm Rafael forecast to become a hurricane as it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday... ...Above average temperatures approaching record levels will spread across the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast... The weather system that has sustained the heavy rain and severe weather across the south-central U.S. for the past couple of days is beginning to advance farther east. This is in response to a low pressure system consolidating along the trailing front as supported by the final pieces of energy of the deep upper trough reaching into the southern Plains. The threats of heavy rain and severe weather today are shifting farther east toward the Mississippi Valley this morning ahead of the front. As the low pressure center tracks farther north across the upper Midwest today and then into the Great Lakes by tonight, the heavy rain threat across the Mississippi Valley will gradually lessen. The front is forecast to become nearly stationary across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining in the vicinity into Thursday morning. Focus will then shift into the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Rafael is forecast to track across western Cuba on Wednesday as a hurricane. The Florida Keys will likely be closest to the path of Rafael with increasing winds amid passing squally downpours associated with rainbands from Rafael by later on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Please refer to the National Hurricane Hurricane for the latest advisories on Rafael. Some moderate to heavy rainfall well ahead of Rafael could move into the Southeast by Wednesday night and continue into Thursday morning. Weather out West is getting active again as another strong upper level trough quickly digs across. A cold front and attendant low pressure system have already traversed the Pacific Northwest. In addition to winter weather across the mountains that has prompted winter weather advisories and storm warnings, strong winds accompanying the low have also prompted high wind warnings for the interior Pacific Northwest and portions of Montana and Wyoming. The front will dip farther south into the southern Rockies by Wednesday and then across the central and southern Plains by Thursday morning. A round of new snow is expected to blanket much of the Four Corners region behind the strong front. Temperatures will plunge as an arctic air mass invades the region. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s across the valleys and lows may approach the single digits in the cool spots. Make sure to bundle up. Kong/Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php