Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 321 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 Valid 00Z Wed Nov 06 2024 - 00Z Fri Nov 08 2024 ...Heavy rain and severe weather threats shifting east toward the Arklatex, Mid-Mississippi Valley, and into the Midwest/Ohio Valley today... ...Mountain snow and wind will spread south from the Northern Rockies today, reaching into much of the Central Rockies and Four Corners on Wednesday into Thursday morning... ...Watching South Florida and especially the Florida Keys for impacts associated with Tropical Storm Rafael forecast to become a hurricane as it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday... ...Above average temperatures approaching record levels will spread across the Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and East Coast... Energy traversing within the deep upper trough over the Southern Plains will help shift the threats of heavy rain and severe weather today toward the Mississippi Valley. As the low pressure center tracks farther north across the upper Midwest today and then into the Great Lakes by tonight, the heavy rain threat across the Mississippi Valley will gradually lessen. The front is forecast to become nearly stationary across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining in the vicinity into Thursday morning. WPC has highlighted a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall and local flooding concerns from the Arkansas/Mississippi border to western Kentucky. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rafael (currently west of Jamaica) is forecast to track across Cuba as a Hurricane on Wednesday and continue on a northwestward track through the Gulf of Mexico while slowly decreasing in strength. The Florida Keys will likely be closest to the path of Rafael with increasing winds amid passing squally downpours associated with rainbands from Rafael by later on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest advisories on Rafael. Some moderate to heavy rainfall well ahead of Rafael could move into the Southeast by Wednesday night and continue into Thursday morning. A strong upper level trough is expected to quickly progress through the West which will push the cold front through the Rockies and Southwest. Snow in the mountains along with strong winds will persist after the frontal passage. There are winter weather advisories, winter storm warnings, winter storm watches, wind advisories and high wind watches scattered from Montana to New Mexico. As the front reaches the southern Rockies by Wednesday and the Central and Southern Plains by Thursday morning there will be a round of new snow to blanket much of the Four Corners region. As arctic air plunges into the region temperatures will fall to the 30s and 40s across the valleys and drop to the single digits in the cool spots for overnight lows. Make sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along with lower moisture will increase the risk for wildfires over the next few days. Red flag warnings are in effect for portions of coastal and interior California. The Storm Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions highlighted for southern California Wednesday with an extreme area in the vicinity of Santa Clarita which will carry over into Thursday. Campbell/Kong/Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php