Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Nov 06 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024 ...Heavy rain threat emerging over the interior Southeast late today into Thursday as tropical moisture associated with weak low over southeastern Gulf of Mexico lifts northward... ...Increasing threat for heavy snow to impact the central to southern Rockies and nearby High Plains through the next couple of days... ...Watching the Florida Keys for impacts associated with Hurricane Rafael forecast to pass not too far to the west tonight... ...Record warmth expected for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England today... As heavy rain threat across the Mississippi Valley gradually diminishes today, tropical moisture associated with a weak low pressure circulation centered over southeastern Gulf of Mexico is beginning to lift north toward the Florida Panhandle under a broad channel of southerly flow aloft. This weak low is a system somewhat separate from Hurricane Rafael farther south in the Caribbean Sea. The tropical moisture associated with the weak low is forecast to be drawn northward today, leading to heavy rainfall tonight into Thursday morning across the interior section of the Southeast. WPC currently places a moderate risk of heavy rain across central Georgia into portions of South Carolina for this upcoming heavy rain event. Meanwhile, moderate to locally heavy rain associated with a cold front early this morning along the Mississippi and Ohio Valley is forecast to become more scattered in nature as today progresses. Meanwhile, Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while heading northwest toward western Cuba. The National Hurricane Center calls for Rafael to be a category-2 hurricane as it passes not too far to the west of Key West tonight into Thursday morning. Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the western portion of the Florida Keys where increasing winds with passing squally downpours associated with rainbands from Rafael can be expected by tonight. As Rafael threatens the Florida Keys, a winter storm is brewing across the southern Rockies. A vigorous upper-level trough is plunging south toward the Four Corners early this morning, ushering a surge of polar air into the region while developing an area of snow over the central Rockies into the central High Plains. The snow is expected to expand in coverage and pickup intensity as today progresses. The compact and vigorous nature of this upper trough/low will help sustain the snow in the general vicinity of central to southern Rockies into the nearby High Plains (mostly within Colorado and New Mexico) as the upper low rotates and lingers. If the upper low deepens more than expected, the associated snow could linger in the same area farther out in time. There is potential for a foot of snow to fall across the Front Range of Colorado, while a few feet of wet snow is possible farther south across the higher elevations near the Colorado-New Mexico border and into northern New Mexico. Winter Storm Watches and Warnings as well as Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for much of the aforementioned areas. In addition to producing snow, this vigorous upper low could have changeable influences on the future track of Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast track on Rafael. As arctic air plunges into the region, temperatures in the West will fall to the 30s and 40s across the valleys and drop to the single digits in the cool spots for overnight lows. Make sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along with lower moisture will increase the risk for wildfires over the next few days. Red flag warnings are in effect for portions of coastal and interior California. The Storm Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions highlighted for southern California today with an extreme area in the vicinity of Santa Clarita which will carry over into Thursday. In contrast, high temperatures are forecast to challenge or break records today across the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England as well as scattered locations in the South ahead of the weakening cold front moving across the Mississippi Valley. Kong/Campbell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php