Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 246 PM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 00Z Fri Nov 08 2024 - 00Z Sun Nov 10 2024 ...Heavy snow expected to impact portions of Colorado and New Mexico while heavy rain, severe weather, and windy conditions sweep across the Southern Plains through the next couple of days... ...Heavy rain threat over the Southeast is expected to gradually diminish by this evening... ...Hurricane Rafael is forecast to track more westward away from the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico through the next couple of days... ...Record warmth continues from the Mid-Atlantic down into the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast... The heavy rain threat over the Southeast is expected to diminish by this evening as the associated disturbance pulls offshore of the Carolina coastline. Until then, WPC has portions of Georgia and South Carolina in a Slight Risk and a Marginal Risk in place from northern Florida to the South/North Carolina border. Further south the tropical-storm-force winds and squally downpours associated with rainbands from Hurricane Rafael have greatly diminished now that Hurricane Rafael is tracking westward through the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, a vigorous upper-level trough plunging south will continue to usher polar air into the region while gradually develops a low pressure system over the southern High Plains. The compact and vigorous nature of the upper low will help sustain snow in the general vicinity of Central/Southern Rockies into the nearby High Plains (mostly within Colorado and New Mexico) as the upper low rotates and lingers. This winter storm has the potential for snow accumulations nearing a 1 foot for the Front Range of Colorado and a few feet of heavy, wet snow for the higher elevations of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. Numerous Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches are in effect for northeast Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado. Freeze warnings are in effect for southeast Arizona. This same system also poses a heavy rain and severe weather threat for the adjacent Southern Plains by this evening into Friday. The highest threat of heavy rain is forecast to be expanding across western Texas toward southwestern Oklahoma tonight into Friday morning when the low pressure system develops and intensifies over western Texas as it tracks northward. A band of severe thunderstorms can also be expected to sweep across western Texas ahead of a potent cold front. Much of the central to southern High Plains will come under an increasing threat of high winds as well especially by this evening into Friday morning when the low pressure system deepens most rapidly. This could result in gale force winds to accompany heavy snow on Friday across the central High Plains in Colorado, while wind-swept rain impacts Oklahoma and Kansas, and severe thunderstorms sweep east across Texas ahead of the potent cold front. By Saturday morning, much of the rain should be pushing east into the Arklatex region and into the Central Plains ahead of the low pressure system. This will allow the Southern Plains to dry out. However, heavy snow could linger across central Colorado into Saturday morning depending on the strength of the low pressure system. This vigorous upper low could have changeable influences on the future track of Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast track on Rafael. Much colder temperatures are expected across the West behind the low pressure system and a cold front; with 30s and 40s across the valleys and dipping into the single digits in the cool spots for overnight lows. Make sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along with lower moisture will increase the risk for wildfires in the Southwest over the next few days. Critical wildfire conditions persist across California where Red flag warnings are in effect for portions of coastal and interior California. The Storm Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions highlighted for southern California with an extreme area in the vicinity of Santa Clarita which will carry over for today. In contrast, record warm minimum temperatures are forecast to continue from the Mid-Atlantic down into the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast through the next couple of nights. High temperatures are not quite reaching record levels but will remain well above normal for these areas for early November. Campbell/Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php