Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 AM EST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 - 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024 ...Widespread precipitation expected across the Northwest and northern Rockies, including heavy mountain snow for parts of the region... ...A strong area of low pressure will bring periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and the potential for severe thunderstorms throughout the southern to central Plains between tonight and Monday... ...Heavy rain and scattered instances of flash flooding possible early this week across the central and eastern Gulf Coast... An inland progressing cold front and associated onshore flow off the Pacific Ocean will aid in producing widespread precipitation over the next few days across the Northwest and northern Rockies. Moderate to locally heavy rain is possible across coastal sections of Washington and Oregon, while heavy snow is likely throughout the Cascades and high terrain of northern Idaho and western Montana. Meanwhile, a much stronger storm system and corresponding atmospheric river is anticipated to begin impacting the Northwest Tuesday night. Strong winds and heavy rainfall are possible from northern California to Washington, with potential impacts including scattered flooding and power outages, as well as heavy mountain snowfall. A strong area of low pressure is also forecast to produce numerous weather hazards across the central U.S. beginning tonight. The strengthening storm system is expected to organize over West Texas and push into the central Plains by Monday. On the east side of this storm a strong surge of atmospheric moisture content from the western Gulf of Mexico will aid in creating an environment ripe for thunderstorm development, particularly across western/central Texas and southwest Oklahoma into early Monday. This region is where the Storm Prediction Center currently highlights the best potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. A draped stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the low pressure center will allow for a corridor of focused heavy rainfall and the possibility of scattered flash flooding. Flood Watches are in effect from northwest Texas to central Oklahoma in order to highlight this concern. As the anomalously deep system moves northward on Tuesday, rainfall chances will also spread northward into the Upper Midwest. Snow is also likely to develop across parts of North Dakota and could be heavy at time through Wednesday morning. Additionally, a tight pressure gradient associated with this area of low pressure could create periods of strong winds throughout the central U.S. early this week. Heavy rainfall is also a concern throughout the central and eastern Gulf Coast early this week as an approaching cold front interacts with a surge of tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Sara as it dissipates over Belize today. This elevated atmospheric moisture content is anticipated to allow for areas of heavy rainfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, with high chances (70-90%) for widespread rainfall amounts of at least 2 inches. Temperatures anomalies are forecast to split the Nation in half over the next few days as below normal temperatures dominate the West, while above normal readings remain in the East. Dry conditions can be anticipated along much of the East Coast, central High Plains, and Southwest through Wednesday morning. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php