Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 223 AM EST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025 - 12Z Wed Jan 15 2025 ...Extremely dangerous fire weather conditions to develop across coastal southern California early this week... ...Locally heavy lake effect snow showers downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario as renewed surge of arctic air moves through into the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley... The weather pattern across the lower 48 will feature upper level ridging from the northeastern Pacific into the northwestern U.S., while upper level troughing dominates much of the remaining area of the country. Below average moisture across much of the lower 48 will result in a lack of rain/snow for many areas of the lower 48 through Tuesday with the exception of lake effect snow showers and scattered snow showers in and around the northern/central Rockies into the High Plains. The passage of a weak surface low and cold front through Florida today will bring a gradual end to rainfall across portions of the southeastern U.S. Meanwhile, another cold front, moving through the Ohio Valley this morning, will be followed by another surge of Arctic air which will reach the Midwest today and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Tuesday. The cold front will be accompanied by snow showers today across the Northeast with potential for isolated snow squalls which could result in hazardous travel from sudden reduced visibilities, gusty winds and quick minor accumulations of snow. High temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average today from the Upper Midwest to lower portions of the Ohio Valley. The airmass will be modifying/losing vigor as it reaches the East Coast, but will still be responsible for below average temperatures by Tuesday for the Eastern Seaboard. Heavy lake effect snow showers are expected to develop later today as the colder air moves across the Great Lakes, with localized snowfall accumulations of 1-2 feet for isolated locations which experience persistent banding through Tuesday night, mainly east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The lack of precipitation across the CONUS will also include southern California which has experienced a number of high profile wildfires over the past week. Upper troughing aloft and increasing surface pressures over the Great Basin will again lead to strong gusts across the typically favored areas across coastal southern California today with winds peaking between 40-50 mph. Conditions are expected to worsen for these locations by Tuesday morning as wind gusts near 70 mph will be possible. When combined with low relative humidities and a lack of recent rainfall (dry fuels), a Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warning has been issued for Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties from Monday night through Wednesday morning. These locations will be under a high risk for large fires with potential for very rapid spreading of any fires that may develop. Otto Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php