Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025 Valid 12Z Tue Jan 14 2025 - 12Z Thu Jan 16 2025 ...Extremely critical fire weather conditions will continue across coastal Southern California today... ...Much below average temperatures from the Midwest to the central Appalachians through Wednesday but warming into the central U.S. on Thursday... ...Locally heavy lake effect snow showers downwind of the Great Lakes through Wednesday... Overall, the weather pattern across most of the lower 48 through Thursday will feature a lack of precipitation with a warming trend later in the week. This will be a reflection of broad upper level troughing over the eastern two thirds of the nation and ridging over the Pacific Northwest, forecast to migrate eastward through Thursday. Coastal southern California will continue to see extremely critical fire weather conditions through at least today with localized wind gusts near 70 mph focused across Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Very dangerous conditions will continue into Wednesday for many of these same locations with a broader, though not as extreme, threat extending along most of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges. Winds are expected to oscillate in magnitude over the next 48 hours but the environment is expected to be remain extremely dangerous, favorable to very rapid fire growth if a fire does start. After the passage of a cold front on Monday night across the eastern U.S., another surge of modified Arctic air will move across the Midwest today. High temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average for many locations from the Upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley today, with the cold continuing for the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A change in wind direction from northerly/northwestelry to westerly will accompany a warm front on Wednesday across the north-central U.S. which will have the effect of significant warming for the region. In fact, high temperatures are forecast to jump about 20 degrees higher on Wednesday compared to Tuesday for the north-central U.S., moving high temperatures from below average to above average. The warmer weather will expand south and east for Thursday but the East Coast will still remain a little below average. The other consequence of the cold weather will be heavy lake effect snow showers on the southeast and eastern shores of the Great Lakes. While local wind direction will vary over the next couple of days, moving narrow bands of heavy snow north or south, the heaviest accumulations of 1 to 2 feet (locally higher) are expected east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, especially into the Tug Hill Plateau. Otto Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php