Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 232 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Jan 15 2025 - 12Z Fri Jan 17 2025 ...Critical fire weather conditions will continue across coastal southern California today but improvement expected toward end of week... ...Temperatures will start off cold but will warm from west to east from Great Plains to Appalachians through Friday... ...Localized heavy lake effect snow showers will begin to wane downwind of the Great Lakes tonight but at least light snow to continue into Friday... Southern California will maintain locally extreme fire danger across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties through at least Wednesday afternoon with northeasterly wind gusts of 30-50 mph (isolated 60 mph gusts), across mountainous regions. Critical fire weather conditions will extend throughout much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges today as well. While wind gusts may not be as strong compared to Ventura and Los Angeles counties, the potential for rapid fire growth and localized downed trees and power outages will still remain. Conditions look to improve during the day on Thursday as the surface pressure gradient weakens and winds begin to shift toward weakly onshore. A very cold airmass in place across the Midwest to East Coast early Wednesday morning will begin to moderate through the end of the week as low level winds begin to shift toward the west and southwest. However, temperatures will start off 10 to 20 degrees below average today across the Ohio Valley. Lake effect snow showers will continue to the east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today, but coverage and intensity should begin to diminish in advance of a warm front approaching from the west. While temperatures will be warming across the Great Lakes and Northeast, another round of light to moderate snow will be advancing east from the upper Great Lakes on Thursday, reaching the central Appalachians and Northeast later in the day on Thursday. Snowfall accumulations with this system are expected to remain low (a couple of inches at most) but should be bit higher for the central Appalachians where localized 6 to 12 inch amounts are forecast. In the wake of the eastward tracking warm front over the Great Plains, high temperatures will warm into the 30s and 40s today and Thursday over the northern Plains (up to 20 degrees above average for mid-January). However, this warmth will be of a short duration as the beginning of a surge of bitter cold air will be entering the northern Plains Friday morning, with much colder weather in the forecast for the weekend. Otto Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php