Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 212 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 00Z Thu Jan 16 2025 - 00Z Sat Jan 18 2025 ...Critical fire weather conditions will continue across coastal southern California today but improvement expected toward end of week... ...A brief moderation of temperatures across the central U.S. before an arctic front plunges into the northern U.S. on Friday... ...Localized heavy lake effect snow showers will begin to wane downwind of the Great Lakes tonight but at least light snow to continue into Friday.. The general weather pattern will consist of a mid-level trough over the Southern California that will move eastward and help alleviate fire weather concerns by Thursday (more on that in the discussion). The central U.S. will have a warm front pass through the region and bring warmer temperatures and a chance for snow showers in the Midwest and Great Lakes with its passage. Overall, ridging will build into the area into Friday.The eastern U.S. looks to remain broadly in a troughing pattern as an area of low pressure and surface fronts move over the Great Lakes. Southern California will maintain locally extreme fire danger across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles counties through this afternoon with northeasterly wind gusts of 30-50 mph (isolated 60 mph gusts), across mountainous regions.The potential for rapid fire growth and localized downed trees and power outages will still remain. Conditions look to improve during the day on Thursday as the surface pressure gradient weakens and winds begin to shift toward weakly onshore, but a PDS Red Flag Warning continues until noon on Thursday as the winds will be slow to weaken. Visit the local weather forecast office for specific information and watches/warnings. A very cold airmass remains in place across the Midwest to East Coast. The Midwest will begin to see its temperatures modify. Thursday and Friday will be 10-20 degrees warmer than average for this time of the year. High temperatures in the 40s and 50s will be commonplace across the region. The east coast will not be so quick to modify as troughing continues over the region and highs will be 5-15 degrees below average Thursday before approaching near average on Friday. Thursday morning lows will be quite chilly in the single digits for interior regions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Coastal regions and the 95 corridor may still see lows in the teens. Friday morning will see lows in the 20s with New England still quite chilly with lows in the single digits possible. T Lake effect snow showers will continue to the east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario today with a couple of inches still possible, especially along the eastern shores of Lake Eerie where a Lake Effect Snow Warning is valid through early Thursday morning. However,coverage and intensity should begin to diminish in advance of a warm front approaching from the west. While temperatures will be warming across the Great Lakes and Northeast, another round of light to moderate snow will be advancing east from the upper Great Lakes on Thursday, reaching the central Appalachians and Northeast later in the day on Thursday. Snowfall accumulations with this system are expected to remain low. Elsewhere, the South will be rather seasonable for this time of the year with chilly rain showers along the northern Gulf Coast. A front should start to die entering the region in the next 24 hours, while an inverted trough continues to bring unsettled weather in the Gulf of Mexico. Eyes then turn to the northern Plains on Friday as an Arctic front drops down into the northern Plains and brings the threat for snow squalls and dangerously cold temperatures. Stay tuned with key messages on the cold blast on the Weather Prediction Center website. Wilder/Otto Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php