Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 220 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 00Z Fri Jan 24 2025 - 00Z Sun Jan 26 2025 ...Very Cold Winter temperatures continue from the Rockies to the East Coast with a slow warm up anticipated heading into the weekend.... ...Periods of lake-effect snow expected downwind of the Great Lakes with some moderate accumulations possible... ...Multiple hazards will be possible over Southern California... Well below average, very cold temperatures will continue for most of the country from the Rockies east to the East Coast the next couple of days, with some of the most notable departures from average over the Southeast. Forecast highs Thursday generally range from the teens and 20s for the northern Plains and Midwest, the 20s and 30s from the Rockies and central Plains east through the Ohio Valley to the Northeast, and the upper 30s to low 50s from the southern Plains east to the Southeast. Low temperatures will be frigid across the Deep South with low temperatures in the 20s and upper teens possible into Saturday morning.Temperatures may be as much as 20 degrees below average for Late January standards and some locations may break daily record low temperatures across south Georgia to South Florida. Although winds have come down compared to recent days, wind chills will still be quite frigid and make temperatures feel around 10 degrees colder. Some of the more adverse impacts from these temperatures will be for portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast where snow and ice linger on roads and keep travel hazardous after the historic winter storm. Morning low temperatures look to drop below freezing through the weekend across northern Florida into the Carolinas. Conditions will moderate some later this weekend, especially for portions of the Plains and southwestern Gulf Coast where warm westerly winds will bring temperatures up by 10-20 degrees and to average to above average levels. A clipper system passing through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and eastward into the Interior Northeast/Appalachians today will bring some snow showers across the region. Some moderate accumulations are possible with lake-effect snow bands for favorable downwind locations of the Great Lakes. Locations that see the heaviest bands could near 3-6 inch snowfall accumulations. Downwind areas of Lake Ontario near Watertown are under a Lake Effect Snow Warning, and eastern shores of Lake Michigan have Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories active. Very gusty offshore Santa Ana winds will continue this afternoon for Southern California, with gusts as high as 65 mph for some of the area mountain ranges. These winds in combination with very low humidity and dry antecedent conditions have prompted the Storm Prediction Center to continue a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) today and an Elevated Fire Weather Outlook for Friday as of the afternoon forecast package. Wind gusts are expected to come down into Friday, reducing the fire risk, though an elevated threat will still exist given dry humidity and conditions. Ironically, the fires and relatively dry winter for Southern California will lead to a possible flash flooding threat on Saturday across the region as a cold front moves southward into the area. Some isolated heavy rain, approaching half an inch per hour, may have a non-zero risk of debris flows over burn scars Saturday into Sunday. The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Saturday to account for this risk in a very susceptible region recovering and still dealing with wildfires. Aside from the main story-lines, another notable talking point will be the strong cold front moving across the West. The West has been mostly under a ridging pattern over the past week or two, but troughing will push into the region and push a relatively strong cold into the Southwest. By Saturday, areas could be 15-20 degrees below average for high temperatures. High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s for the Pacific Northwest and in the teens and 20s across the northern Plains and Rockies. Mountain snows will accompany the frontal passage Friday night and Saturday in the northern Rockies with some areas seeing a couple of inches of snow. Putnam/Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php