Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 250 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 00Z Sat Jan 25 2025 - 00Z Mon Jan 27 2025 ...Elevated fire weather conditions continue in southern California, precipitation expected to bring relief Saturday into Sunday... ...Below average temperatures continue in the South and East, gradual warm up anticipated this weekend... The forecast remains on track for a deep upper-low and associated frontal system to descend through the western U.S. before closing off and stalling over southern California this weekend. With the arrival of this system, widespread light to moderate rain and mountain snows are expected to begin late tonight focused over central/southern California and the Great Basin. While much of the precipitation should bring much needed relief to the southern California wildfires, these areas will also need monitored for burn scar flash flooding and debris flows as rain showers with locally enhanced rainfall rates enter the area tomorrow morning. Moreover, before any precipitation arrives late tonight, elevated fire weather conditions will persist across southern California today per the Storm Prediction Center. As offshore low pressure strengthens beneath the closed upper-low, the pressure gradient across the West will tighten, resulting in elevated winds across much of the West on Saturday and Sunday. East of the Rockies, low pressure tracking across the northern tier will push a couple of cold fronts south across the Central U.S. while high pressure builds over the Southeast. The first front will drop south across the northern and central Plains today, ushering in a cooler airmass in its wake across the Plains states. By Sunday, the front should approach the Gulf Coast, leading to showers and thunderstorms in the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley as it interacts with a moist pre-frontal airmass. To the north, a reinforcing cold front will drop into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, likely leading to snow showers and locally heavy lake effect snow across the northern tier and Great Lakes regions. Temperatures will remain below average today and Saturday for most of the South and East. Some of the most notable departures from average will be along the Gulf Coast to the Southeast where lows are forecast to be in the 20s and 30s and highs may only reach the 40s and lower 50s. Daytime highs will likely help to melt snow cover from the recent historic winter storm, but liquid water from melted snow may refreeze overnight when temperatures drop below freezing. Temperatures will gradually moderate through the weekend, trending closer to normal by early next week. Below average temperatures are also expected in the West underneath the upper low, and highs could be 15-25 degrees below average in the Rockies over the weekend. Asherman/Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php