Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 213 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 25 2025 - 12Z Mon Jan 27 2025 ...Precipitation in southern California will ease wildfire conditions but could result in localized debris flows and flash flooding... ...Elevated wildfire concerns over portions of Arizona this weekend... A deep upper low and associated frontal system are working their way south across the western U.S., bringing snow from the Great Basin east to the Rockies and central High Plains. The upper low is forecast to gradually stall, resulting in persistent low pressure over the Southwest through Monday. As low pressure strengthens, winds and precipitation will increase across the region. Strong gusty winds and dry conditions will likely result in elevated wildfire concerns over portions of Arizona while precipitation eases fire weather conditions in southern California. Due to increased sensitivity from recent wildfires, moderate to locally heavy rain could result in debris flows and flash flooding in or around burn scars in southern California. East of the Rockies, low pressure tracking along the U.S.-Canada border will push a couple of frontal systems south across the Central U.S. while high pressure builds over the Southeast today. The leading front will extend from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, but precipitation chances will be limited to the southern Plains and Great Lakes regions. The second front will trigger snow showers over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today before catching up with the leading front this afternoon. The southern portion of the front will slowly sag towards the Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday while the northern portion pushes across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue in the southern Plains and spread into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding on Sunday for portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. Wintry precipitation chances will also spread into the northern/central Appalachians and interior New England, with the locally heavy snow possible in northern New York downwind of Lake Ontario. Today will mark the start of a warming trend in temperatures along the Gulf and East Coasts. High temperatures will generally be 5-15 degrees below average this afternoon, then return to near average values Sunday and Monday. A cooler air mass will move across the Central U.S. in the wake of a cold front this weekend, with the coldest anomalies expected in the Rockies and High Plains where temperatures will be 15-25 degrees below average today. An eastward moving warm front will bring above average temperatures to the north-Central U.S. by Monday. West of the Rockies, temperatures will generally be below average under the influence of the upper low, and precipitation and cloud cover will result in highs falling to 10-20 degrees below average in the Southwest. Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php