Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Jan 27 2025 - 00Z Wed Jan 29 2025 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California on Sunday... ...Lake-effect snow followed by light to moderate lake-enhanced snow over the Great Lakes... ...There is an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Southwest on Sunday and Monday... An upper-level low over California will slowly move into the Southwest by Tuesday evening. The system will produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of Central/Southern California through Monday afternoon. The storm will produce heavy rain on Sunday over portions of Southern California. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable. Moreover, the deepening of the upper-level low will increase low-level wind, with dry fuels and low relative humidity, which has led the SPC to issue an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of Southwest on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, upper-level energy moving over the Great Lakes will create lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes through Monday afternoon. The lake-effect snow will be moderate to heavy downwind from Lake Ontario. On Monday, another front moves southward out of Central Canada into the Upper Great Lakes. The system will develop light to moderate snow over the Great Lakes from Monday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Furthermore, a wave of low pressure over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley will move northeastward to Virginia by Monday evening and then southeastward off the Southeast Coast. The boundary will trigger showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains, moving into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday evening. Overnight Sunday, the showers and thunderstorms will expand eastward into the Southeast. By Monday evening, the showers and thunderstorms will begin to taper off along the front. Elsewhere, as the California upper-level low moves into the Southwest, flow off the Western Gulf Coast will stream moisture over the Southern Plains, producing light rain on Tuesday afternoon. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php