Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 216 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 27 2025 - 12Z Wed Jan 29 2025 ...Heavy rain and localized flash flood risk continues for portions of southern California today... ...Elevated fire weather concerns for portions of Arizona and New Mexico today... ...Heavy rain possible across the southern Plains on Wednesday... A slow-moving closed upper low will linger over the southwestern U.S. through mid-week while a low pressure system strengthens at the surface. This low pressure system will bring chances for rain and mountain snow to the Southwest today and Tuesday, then the system will push into the southern Plains on Wednesday. Given the increased sensitivity from recent wildfires in southern California, moderate to locally heavy rain could lead to debris flows and flash flooding in burn scar areas today. To the east, gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated fire weather concerns for portions of Arizona and New Mexico today, but precipitation is expected to reduce fire weather concerns Tuesday into Wednesday. As the low pressure system emerges in the southern Plains on Wednesday, it will interact with warm moist air in place over the south-Central U.S. resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated instances of flash flooding in Central/North Texas and southern Oklahoma, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible in the Southeast as a frontal boundary pushes across the region. The front should push offshore on Tuesday and high pressure will move over the Southeast in it's wake. To the north, rounds of snow are expected across the Great Lakes and Northeast through Wednesday. Initially, a cold front sinking south into the area will bring snow today, then a clipper type low pressure system will quickly swing across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday, triggering another round of snow. Snow totals will likely be highest downwind of the Great Lakes where lake effect enhancement is expected. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected for much of the Northwest and north-Central U.S. under the influence of high pressure. Temperatures are expected to be below normal through Wednesday across the Southwest under the closed upper low, and below normal temperatures will likely develop across the Northeast after a cold front drops south across the region today. The weather pattern will favor above normal temperatures in the north-Central U.S. today, and above normal temperatures will expand to the South and East by Wednesday. Dolan Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php