Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 142 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 00Z Wed Jan 29 2025 - 00Z Fri Jan 31 2025 ...Heavy rains, severe weather and flash flooding possible across the Southern Plains to the Lower Arkansas River Valley... ...Another shot of wintry weather on tap from the Upper to Eastern Great Lakes into northern New York State and New England... ...Much above average temperatures likely across much of the central to eastern U.S... A strong slow moving mid to upper level low over the Southwest Tuesday afternoon will be pressing steadily eastward tonight through Wednesday across the Southwest, and into the Southern High Plains on Thursday. This system is currently relatively moisture starved, resulting in only light to moderate rain and snow amounts across large sections of Arizona, New Mexico and far southern areas of Utah and Colorado. As this system pushes eastward into the Southern High Plains on Thursday, much higher moisture values currently across east Texas into the Gulf will be drawn northward into this system. This will support an increasing area of rainfall beginning early Thursday morning across central Texas into central to eastern Oklahoma, spreading northeastward later Thursday across Arkansas, Missouri, far western Tennessee, far western Kentucky into southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Heavy rains likely across these areas, leading to isolated instances of flash flooding. In addition, thunderstorms in this area of heavy rains will also bring the threat of severe weather across central to eastern Texas, southern Arkansas into central to northern Louisiana and far western Mississippi. More winter weather on tap for the northeast tier of the nation in the wake of the strong front and snow squalls that pushed across portions of the Northeast earlier Tuesday. The next storm system pushing out of south central Canada into the Upper Great Lakes is already producing accumulating snows across the Upper Great Lakes from the eastern Upper Peninsula into the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan. This next storm is expected to push quickly east southeastward across the Upper Lakes into northern New York State Tuesday night/early Wednesday and then across northern New England later Wednesday. An area of accumulating snows likely with this next low across western to Upstate New York into central to northern New England, while lake effect snows are likely in the wake of the low downwind of all of the Lakes. The heaviest forecast snow totals in excess of 6 inches are possible from the Adirondacks of northern NY State and into the Green and White Mountains of VT and NH. Snowfall totals of 2-4"+ possible in the favored lake effect snow regions downwind of Lake Superior, northern Lake Michigan, eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, Temperature wise, much of the central to eastern U.S., save for northern NY State into New England, will see much above average temperatures over the next few days. The greatest temperature anomalies are forecast Wednesday across the Northern to Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Mid-Atlantic. Across these regions, high temperatures may reach 10 to 15+ degrees above average. Even warmer than average temperatures expected on Thursday across the Northern to Central Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley region where high temperatures of 20 to 25 degrees above average are possible. Several record high temperatures are possible on Thursday over southern Minnesota into much of Wisconsin. High temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average also possible Thursday across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Below average temperatures over the next few days will be confined to the Southwest into the Southern High Plains, underneath the above mentioned strong mid to upper level low, and over far northern NY State into New England associated with the above mentioned winter weather. Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php