Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 120 PM EST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Feb 10 2025 - 00Z Wed Feb 12 2025 ...Lake-effect snow downwind from the eastern Great Lakes... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average across the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains and Northwest where a few Low Records may fall through mid-week... ...Another fast moving storm with developing wintry mix stretching from Ozarks through Tennessee Valley into Carolinas/Southern Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday... ...Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding may be possible Tuesday evening across the Lower Mississippi and northern Deep South... A surface low pressure is deepening southeast of New England with last vestiges of snow tapering off this evening; however, in its wake, the Lake Ontario lake effect belt will remain active through tonight into Monday into early Tuesday likely to produce locally up to a foot of snow before another very weak clipper-like system presses through on Tuesday. Lake Erie will be much less active, but 1-3" is possible downstream in N PA/W NY. Another Arctic high pressure and associated cold front is starting to drop into the Northern High Plains today and will usher in well below temperatures across the region Monday at nearly 20-30 degrees below normal before moderating a bit and spreading out across the rest of the northern, central Plains and into the Southern High Plains by Tuesday. This cold air will leak through the Pacific Northwest, as well and with 15-20 degrees below average may reach a few potential low records, particularly on Tuesday. As the cold front drops south with larger scale upper-level trough developing across the Rockies and connecting with southern stream across the Great Basin/Four Corners region; return moisture and warm air will emerge from the Western Gulf of Mexico and tighten the frontal zone across the Southern Plains all the way east to the Carolinas by Tuesday. Along and south of the front, showers and thunderstorms will break out Tuesday night across N LA, MS, AL into the southern foothills/plateaus of the Southern Appalachians. The above average moisture and favorable steering currents for the cells may result in excessive rainfall capable of localized flash flooding. As such, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4). Along the north-side of the front, the cold air dumping in will allow for the development of wintry weather conditions with snows across the eastern Central Plains through northern Kentucky, western Virginia on Tuesday. There may be some wintry mix along/just north of the front west of the Appalachians; however, eastward, cold air damned in from prior front leaving will allow for broader area of freezing rain/sleet along the NC/VA border with heavy snow fall rates across Virginia. A tight gradient is expected and may vary north and south over the next few days as the pieces move into place. Please stay advised by your local forecast office products/discussions at www.weather.gov. Gallina Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php