Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Feb 10 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 12 2025 ...Heavy snow over the Central Plains and Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday†â€Rain/freezing rain over parts of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians with 0.25 inches of ice accumulations possible... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southern Appalachians on Tuesday... ...Temperatures will be 25 to 40 degrees below average across the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains... On Monday, an Arctic front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains and into the Northern Rockies. The boundary will move eastward to the Northeast by Tuesday evening. The western part of the front will merge with a front extending from the southern Mid-Atlantic across the Gulf Coast States to the Great Basin. In the wake of the front, an Arctic high will move into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday evening. Cold air associated with the high will bring temperatures 25 to 40 degrees below average across the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains. Upslope snow will develop over parts of the Northern Rockies on Monday and expand into parts of the Northern Plains, continuing to expand into the Central/Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley by Monday evening. In the meantime, a front extending from the southern Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Southern High Plains will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over the Southern Plains on Monday. Also on Monday, moisture from the Gulf will stream northward over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, intersecting the cold air moving south over the Plains, producing a broad area of light snow over Central Plains and Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. The storms will produce heavy rain over the area. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, a winter storm exiting the Rockies on Tuesday will impact the Central Plains Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Heavy snow is possible by early Wednesday, with snowfall rates of around 1 inch per hour may (>50% chance) produce at least 5 inches of total snow accumulation for much of central Kansas along the I-70 corridor. Moreover, over central/eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks, a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain may yield some ice accumulation of a tenth of an inch or more from Monday evening into Wednesday morning. Any amount of freezing rain could make for hazardous travel on untreated surfaces.In addition, a significant winter storm with impactful wintry weather, including snow and freezing rain, will spread across the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states Tuesday through Wednesday. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are all likely. Furthermore, heavy snow will develop from eastern Kentucky through the I-95 corridor from Richmond to Philadelphia. Snowfall rates may reach 1 inch per hour and likely be heavy, wet snow, making isolated power outages possible. Travel will become extremely hazardous, especially during the Tuesday evening commute. Moreover, a long-duration freezing rain event will occur across portions of the Central Appalachians, especially within the Blue Ridge from far northwest North Carolina into southwest Virginia. More than 0.25†of ice is likely (70%). The freezing rain will make travel dangerous and may cause power outages and tree damage. Elsewhere, lake-effect snow will develop downwind from Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Ontario. The heaviest snowfall will be over the Keweenaw Peninsula in Northern Michigan and the Tug Hill Plateau in New York State. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php