Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Feb 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Feb 15 2025 ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California on Thursday... ...There is a risk of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest with 0. 10 inches of ice accumulations possible on Thursday; Rain/freezing rain over parts of the Northeast on Thursday and over parts of the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Friday... ...Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the highest elevation across the West on Thursday; Heavy snow over parts of the Upper Midwest on Friday... ...Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below average across the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains... On Thursday, an Arctic high over the Central/Southern Plains will slowly move eastward to the off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday. The cold air associated with the high will bring temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below average across the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains. The cold temperatures have prompted an Extreme Cold Warning over the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains. However, the temperatures will start to moderate over the next few days. A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to Central Appalachians and then to the Central Gulf Coast will move off the Eastern Seaboard by Thursday evening. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Central Gulf Coast to the southern Mid-Atlantic that will linger over parts of the Southeast overnight Thursday. In addition, on Thursday, heavy snow will develop over Northern New England and light to moderate snow will continue across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, with heavier amounts downwind from Lakes Superior, Erie, and Ontario. As the storm moves eastward, the ice storm ends in the Central Appalachians. Ice accumulations from freezing rain will transition to plain rain in the Central Appalachians. Dangerous travel conditions will continue with ongoing power outages and tree damage. The snow over the Great Lakes to the Northeast will wane on Friday morning. Meanwhile, a strong storm will move onshore Thursday over the West Coast. The associate area of low pressure will move eastward from Northern California/Pacific Northwest on Thursday to the Central High Plains by Friday evening. The system will continue to move into the Southern Plains by Saturday. On Thursday, the storm will produce heavy rain inland into the Central Valley and Southern California. The rain will produce flash flooding in urban areas, small streams, and some minor river flooding. Additionally, the risk of flash flooding will be highest in and near recent burn scar areas in Southern California. The flooding may include debris flows. Those around recently burned areas should listen carefully to instructions from local officials. Flash flooding in burn scars will be life-threatening. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California through Friday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. Many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. Flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned areas. Moreover, significant mountain snowfall will develop as snow spreads into much of the Western U.S. on Thursday and Friday. The heaviest snow will develop in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, with 72 to 100 inches of snow. Snow levels will rise through the event, but heavy snow is likely to cause dangerous travel at many of the area passes due to snow-covered roads and low visibility. Significant snow will also develop in the mountains of Utah and western Colorado. Freezing rain will produce ice accumulations in northwest Oregon, too. Furthermore, as the energy from the storm moves into the Rockies and Mississippi Valley, moderate to heavy snow will develop over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley, along with the adjacent portions of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Further, rain will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Moreover, rain/freezing rain will develop along the rain/snow line from the Central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Friday into Saturday. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php