Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 307 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 00Z Fri Feb 14 2025 - 00Z Sun Feb 16 2025 ...A western U.S. storm system will bring a multitude of hazards from heavy rain in California to winter weather impacts from the intermountain west to the northeast as it treks across the country... ...A cold front moving through the eastern U.S. will bring temperatures down to around 5-10 degrees below average and another intense shot of Arctic air will follow a cold front and enter the Plains by the start of the weekend... ... A impactful flooding threat looks increasingly likely over the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and parts of the Appalachians this weekend... The current weather in the U.S. is rather chilly as a strong Arctic high dominates the central U.S.. A cold front attended to a strong area of low pressure is bringing heavy rain and the threat for flooding to California and snow and ice to the Pacific Northwest and western mountain ranges. Another cold front is pushing through the east coast this afternoon and will clear the region on Thursday. Over the next 3 days, it is expected that a high pressure will dominate the eastern corridor, while a cold front from the Pacific storm system and an Arctic front will march eastward and southward toward the Midwest and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by the end of this weekend. Much of the West and northern Plains will see below average temperatures, while the South remains warm with many locations seeing high temperatures over 80 degrees. The east coast will be seasonably chilly with highs in the 30s and 40s. The paragraphs below will go into more detail on specific weather hazards. Heavy rain is ongoing across much of California as of this afternoon. There is a threat for flash flooding and strong winds. Through today, a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect parts of southern California, including the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Burn scars from wildfires will be particularly vulnerable. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall covers the coastal ranges and the Sierra Nevada as moist flow and rain continues over saturated soils. The flooding rain should end by tomorrow morning as the front passes through. The system will then become coast to coast as it moves eastward and the next in line will be the intermountain west. Multiple Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Storm Watches are posted where multiple inches of snow may fall, most of which will be on Friday. Travel may be hazardous at times, especially in areas of high terrain. The Midwest and Great Lakes may then see chances for snow on Friday and Saturday as a trough swings into the region and several inches of snow are possible. Finally, the end of the weekend will see the chances for heavy snow and ice potential further east across the Northeast and New England. Temperatures post frontal will be slightly below average across the east for the heart of winter as New England see highs in the teens to 20s, while much of the urban corridor sees highs in the 30s, approaching 40 in the southern Mid-Atlantic. However, the bigger temperature storyline will be in the northern Plains and upper Midwest as temperatures drop to 20-30 degrees below average. High temperatures by the weekend may be in the single teens and likely some places below zero. Meanwhile, a few locations may break 80 degrees across the South. The clash in temperatures will set the stage for a potential major flooding threat, as well as severe weather by this weekend. Saturday will be an impactful weather day for the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, and Appalachia. A Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect across these regions and rainfall totals of 3-6 inches in a 24 hour period, with locally heavier amounts likely in training convection, are forecast. Flash flooding is likely and a higher upgrade is still possible for the flooding threat as the event nears. Listen to your local officials and local weather forecast office for more information regarding weather safety. For severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center has a Enhanced Risk from eastern Texas to western Alabama for the threats of large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php