Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 226 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Feb 17 2025 - 00Z Wed Feb 19 2025 ...Widespread moderate to locally heavy snowfall along with increasing winds from the Great Lakes to New England will begin to wind down this evening with a period of sleet/ice from upstate New York to interior New England... ...A surge of arctic air will spread southward across the northern U.S. for the next couple of days with snow developing from the northern Rockies to the north-central Plains... ...Pacific system will bring more lower-elevation coastal/valley rain and higher elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest... A winter storm stretching from the Great Lakes to Upstate New York/New England associated with a deepening low pressure/frontal system in the Northeast will begin to wind down this (Sunday) evening. Warmer air moving northward along the coast has brought a transition from snow to a wintry mix for southern portions of New England, reducing additional snow accumulations but adding to travel troubles with sleet and freezing rain on top of already slick roads. Snowfall to the north should taper off through the evening/overnight hours with some additional light accumulations, potentially heavier along the Canadian border in Maine. Higher elevations of the central Appalachians will also see some additional light to moderate snow accumulations overnight. Snow will linger longer for favorable lake-effect locations of the Great Lakes through the day Monday with cold westerly flow in place following the departure of the storm system, with some heavy accumulations expected east of Lake Ontario. Further south, showers and storms ahead an associated cold front should be quickly coming to an end along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast as the front clears the coast. Very strong, gusty winds throughout the Northeast should also wind down overnight. An intrusion of dangerously cold Arctic air continues to expand southward across the heart of the country following the cold front passage this weekend. This air is already well entrenched across portions of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest where daily highs are struggling to exceed zero degrees for many locations and wind chills are upwards of-30 to -60 degrees below zero. These extreme conditions can cause frostbite within minutes. After a brief reprieve from frigid highs in the 30s and 40s today for the southern Plains on Monday as temperatures warm into the 40s, 50s, and 60s, a cold front will drop southward and bring the frigid Arctic air to the north with it by Tuesday. Temperatures will plummet into the teens and 20s outside of southern Texas. Frigid air in teens and 20s will also expand eastward across the Great Lakes and Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys as well as much of the Northeast by Monday. Subzero wind chills will be possible as far south as Texas, Arkansas, and western Tennessee and Kentucky. Unfortunately, this pattern looks to continue through this week. While not quite as cold as further west, the cold front passage off the East Coast will also usher in below average temperatures for these locations as well, with highs in the 30s and 40s in the southern Mid-Atlantic and the 40s and 50s in the Southeast. To the west, the next upper-level wave and surface frontal system is currently passing through the Pacific Northwest, northern Great Basin, and northern/central Rockies, with lower elevation/coastal rain, a wintry mix for the interior valleys, and heavy high elevation mountain snow expected for the next couple of days. Increasing upslope flow along the Rockies will also lead to areas of moderate to heavy snow across portions of the northern High Plains and Black Hills through Monday. Precipitation should start to taper off across the region during the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening. The wave will drop southeastward over the Rockies through Monday and help to deepen/organize a low pressure/frontal system over the southern Plains later Monday evening and into the day Tuesday. Moist southerly flow northward over the noted Arctic airmass plunging southward will lead to an expanding area of wintry precipitation across portions of the central/southern Plains on Tuesday. A band of heavy snow is expected along a corridor across southeastern Kansas/far northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri and far northwestern Arkansas beginning by early Tuesday and lasting through the day/overnight hours. Several inches of snow as well as gusty winds leading to blowing snow will make travel difficult to impossible. Areas just to the south of this will likely see a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. This system will continue eastward spreading additional winter hazards into the Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley Tuesday night and eventually to the East Coast Wednesday, beyond the current forecast period. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php