Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 18 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 20 2025 ...Winter storm to track from the central Plains to Mid-Mississippi Valley today through tonight before impacting the southern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday with accumulating snow and areas of sleet/freezing rain... ...Record cold temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills to spill further southward into the Plains with below average temperatures spanning across much of the East... ...Next round of mountain snow and lower elevation rain expected to affect the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Wednesday into Thursday... As a large pool of arctic air continues to advance further south into the mid-section of the country, the next weather maker is brewing over the central/southern High Plains along a nearly stationary arctic boundary. Widespread upslope snowfall across the northern Rockies into the High Plains will begin to expand eastward as a low pressure wave develops along the arctic front later today. With the support of a jet stream in the upper levels, the snow will become more focused across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and southern Missouri by this afternoon and into the evening. There is a good chance of seeing 6 inches to locally a foot of new snow by the time the snow tapers off Wednesday morning in these areas. A swath of sleet/freezing rain can also be expected across the southern portion of these states from this afternoon into tonight. The center of the low pressure wave will track just off the Gulf Coast with rain and even some embedded thunderstorms from eastern Texas into Louisiana through tonight, and then across the rest of the Gulf Coast states and through the Southeast including the northern half of Florida on Wednesday. Locally heavy rain and isolated instances of flash flooding are possible along the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, accumulating snowfall will likewise spread eastward across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians on Wednesday, moving into the Mid-Atlantic region by Wednesday evening. Areas from the eastern Kentucky to southern West Virginia are expected to receive 4 to 6+ inches of snow while southeastern Virginia/northeastern North Carolina and possibly into the eastern shores could see 8+ inches. Some sleet/ice can also be expected from the interior Deep South to portions of the Carolinas. The low pressure system is forecast to intensify rapidly as it tracks just off the Carolina coastline and then off the East Coast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The northern Mid-Atlantic through New England is not expected to see any snow from this system at all. Meanwhile, lake-effect snow will once again make its presence known along the Snow Belt downwind from the Great Lakes. With the frigid airmass' continued southward plunge, temperatures dropping well below zero are forecast from Montana and the Dakotas to the upper Midwest and sections of the central Plains, with -30s near the Canadian border for the next couple of mornings through Wednesday. Wind chills will reach dangerously cold levels between -30 and -60 degrees in these areas. High temperatures are forecast to only stay in the single digits for the next couple of afternoons in the central Plains, setting numerous cold high temperatures. By Thursday morning, the arctic air will reach the Gulf Coast where temperatures are forecast to dip below freezing with numerous low temperature records expected to be broken from the central Plains southward to the Gulf Coast. Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories are currently span across the northern Plains and upper Midwest down to central Texas. Be sure to dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside. Elsewhere, heavy mountain snow and light lower elevation snow across the northern Rockies through today will taper off as the next Pacific storm system enters the Northwest early Wednesday. Unsettled weather associated with the next Pacific system is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. A compact low pressure system could be making landfall near the Washington-Oregon border Wednesday night possibly bringing a period of high winds and heavy rain into the vicinity and as far south as northern California. The low is expected to quickly weaken overland while mountain snow will spread farther inland across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies by Thursday morning. The Southwest will remain dry through the forecast period. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php