Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1238 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Feb 24 2025 - 00Z Wed Feb 26 2025 ...Atmospheric River bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, and scattered instances of flooding to the Northwest through early next week... ...Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula... ...Temperatures continue to slowly moderate across the southern and eastern U.S. as most of the country trends towards a period of milder temperatures... Upper-level ridging over much of the country today will give way to shortwaves moving through the northern tier while another propagates across the Gulf. The active period continues for the Northwest U.S. and Gulf Coast into the work week. Waves of low pressure will produce heavy rainfall and a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over portions of coastal Washington/Oregon and upslope areas of the Cascades through Monday. Gusty winds and more precipitation will arrive over the Pacific Northwest on Monday alongside a much deeper low pressure system. Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph over parts of southern Washington and northern Oregon. A deepening shortwave over the Gulf will support a surface low, which will produce showers and thunderstorms across the central Gulf Coast tonight before shifting into the Florida Peninsula on Monday. While rainfall may be heavy at times, rain rates aren't expected to be high enough to cause flash flooding concerns over the Gulf Coast tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms spread into central/southern Florida on Monday, where heavy rain will be possible at times. Isolated instances of Flash Flooding are possible (at least 5%) over southern portions of the state on Monday as the surface front that is focusing the precip remains to the south of the state. The upper ridge and embedded shortwaves propagating through the Great Plains will support milder temperatures through early week, while cloudy/rainy conditions over the Gulf Coast and Florida will produce cooler than average high temperatures. Milder airmass spreads into the East Coast into midweek. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php