Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 00Z Sun Mar 02 2025 - 00Z Tue Mar 04 2025 ...Critical Fire Weather Risk through this evening over portions of the Carolinas, and also the remainder of the weekend and early next week over portions of the Southwest to Southern High Plains... ...Temperatures drop well below average into early next week across much of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... ...Unsettled weather expected across the West on Sunday and Monday as a new Pacific storm system advances inland across the Intermountain Region and through the Rockies... A strong cold front will cross the Eastern Seaboard and the Gulf Coast region this evening which will bring cold high pressure and a return to below average temperatures through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. The cold northwest winds over the Great Lakes and Northeast in behind the cold front will bring a threat for snow shower activity and there may be locally a few inches of lake-effect snow immediately downwind of the Great Lakes. The coldest temperatures relative to normal over the next couple of days will be over the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast where high temperatures will be as much as 15 to 25 degrees below normal before then moderating by next Tuesday. However, as this cold front crosses through the Southeast through this evening, there will be windy, dry conditions in place and this will result in elevated to locally critical fire danger concerns. As a result, there are Red Flag Warnings in effect with portions of the Carolinas seeing the greatest fire danger threat. Dry conditions will generally be in place for the rest of the weekend across the South, but there will be a weak storm system ejecting out across the southern Plains late Sunday and Sunday night which will facilitate a return of enough moisture and instability for a threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms which may produce a few instances of severe weather with isolated large hail an strong winds possible. However, as this system initially comes through the Southwest and out into the southern High Plains, there will be concerns for gusty winds, and this coupled with the dry conditions will support elevated to critical fire weather concerns. Areas of southern Arizona through southern New Mexico and western Texas will see the greatest fire weather concerns through Sunday and early Monday. Finally, a new Pacific storm system will be advancing inland into the Intermountain Region on Sunday which will then cross the central and southern Rockies Sunday night and early Monday. This will bring areas of showers and a threat for locally heavy higher elevation snowfall. This will include the Sierra Nevada, portions of the Great Basin, the Wasatch of Utah, and also the higher terrain of western Colorado where 6 to 12+ inches of new snowfall will be possible. However, for areas farther south and east toward the southern High Plains, this next system will bring a new surge of strong, gusty winds which coupled with dry air/low relative humidities will support fairly widespread critical fire danger concerns which will include central and southern New Mexico and parts of western Texas through Monday. This storm system will intensify as it ejects out into the southern Plains early next week and aside from the fire weather concerns, severe weather will become an increasing threat with more widespread showers and thunderstorms impacting areas farther east over the central and southern Plains by later Monday through early Tuesday. A more widespread and substantial severe weather outbreak is expected by midweek for areas even farther east over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley. Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php