Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 00Z Mon Mar 03 2025 - 00Z Wed Mar 05 2025 ...A major winter storm ejecting out into the Central U.S. will bring widespread hazards going through midweek including high winds, blizzard conditions, severe weather, and a concern for some flash flooding... ...There is critical to extreme fire weather danger across much of the Southern High Plains going through the early to middle part of the week... ...Much above normal temperatures across the Midwest will move into the Eastern U.S. by midweek, with below normal temperatures over the West gradually reaching the Plains... Low pressure associated with a Pacific storm system moving into the Intermountain Region will move east and cross the central and southern Rockies by early Monday morning before then rapidly strengthening across the central High Plains by Monday night. This very strong low center will then move east across the Midwest on Tuesday before approaching the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Widespread hazardous weather is expected with this storm system going through the middle of the week which will initially include as much as 6 to 12 inches of new snowfall for the Sierra Nevada, and 1 to 2 feet of snow for some of the higher terrain of the Great Basin and the central Rockies going through Tuesday. However, on the cold side of the storm system as it intensifies and moves east, a swath of heavy snow and strong winds is expected to develop across the central High Plains to the upper Midwest for Tuesday and Wednesday. A swath of 4 to 8 inches of new snowfall is possible, with locally as much as a foot potentially over the upper Midwest where the heaviest accumulations are expected by midweek. Blizzard conditions will be possible given a combination of the heavy snow and strong winds. Farther south, much of the southern High Plains region including New Mexico, southeast Colorado, southwest Kansas and much of western Oklahoma and western Texas will be seeing the arrival of locally very strong and damaging winds along with dry air with very low relative humidities as this storm system advances east. Critical to extreme fire weather danger exists across these locations on Monday and will this will continue especially eastern New Mexico and western Texas going through Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, farther east across the southern Plains and toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South region, the concern will be severe weather as strong winds bring Gulf moisture and instability northward. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected locally tonight through Monday across the southern Plains including the Red River Valley of the South, but a much more widespread and potentially major severe weather outbreak is expected on Tuesday for the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South region which will include strong damaging winds, large hail and a threat for tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across portions of the southern Plains through tonight and Monday, with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) denoted on Tuesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern for areas of the Midwest and down into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South region on Tuesday and there may be at least isolated areas of flash flooding as a result. The Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for portions of these areas with some of this also overlapping the aforementioned severe weather threat areas. Temperatures will be highly changeable going through the middle of the week due to the storm, with much above normal temperatures over the Midwest moving east into the Eastern U.S. by Tuesday and Wednesday as these areas will generally be on the warm side of the rapidly approaching upstream storm system. However, colder air and below normal temperatures that are already generally situated over the West will then overspread the Plains on the back side of the strong low center. Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php