Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 249 AM EST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 05 2025 ...A major winter storm ejecting out into the Central U.S. will bring widespread hazards going through midweek including high winds, blizzard conditions, severe weather, and a concern for some flash flooding... ...There is critical to extreme fire weather danger across much of the Southern High Plains going through the early to middle part of the week... ...Much above normal temperatures across the Midwest will move into the Eastern U.S. by midweek, with below normal temperatures over the West gradually reaching the Plains... A low pressure system is expected to rapidly strengthen as it tracks across the Southern and Central Plains today, through the Midwest Tuesday and into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Widespread hazardous weather is expected with this storm system through midweek which will initially include as much as 6 to 12 inches of new snowfall for the Sierra Nevada, and 1 to 2 feet of snow for some of the higher terrain of the Great Basin and the central Rockies going through Tuesday. A swath of heavy snow along with strong winds is expected to develop across the central High Plains to the Upper Midwest Tuesday/Wednesday within the cold sector of this storm. Snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with locally as much as a foot, to set up over the upper Midwest Blizzard conditions will be possible given a combination of the heavy snow and strong winds. Drier air along with strong winds on the backside of this potent storm will spread through the central and southern High Plains and portions of the Southwest which will drive down humidity values and increase the risk for wildfires. Critical to extreme fire weather danger will persist, especially for eastern New Mexico and western Texas going into Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain potential is the main concerns for much of the Southern Plains, Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. Strong winds will transport Gulf moisture and instability northward which will support heavy showers and thunderstorms for Southern Plains including the Red River Valley of the South, but a much more widespread and potentially major severe weather outbreak is expected on Tuesday for the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South region which will include strong damaging winds, large hail and a threat for tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across portions of the Southern Plains today and an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) denoted on Tuesday and Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley. The Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for portions of these areas with some of this also overlapping the aforementioned severe weather threat areas. This robust winter storm will have a large impact on temperatures through at least midweek. Much above seasonal normal values are expected from the Midwest to the East Tuesday and Wednesday as these locations will be on the warm side of the approaching system. The West will have below normal temperatures that will spill out into the Plains as the storm system advances eastward. Campbell/Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php