Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 00Z Tue Mar 04 2025 - 00Z Thu Mar 06 2025 ...A major winter storm ejecting out into the Central U.S. will bring widespread hazards going through midweek including damaging high winds, blizzard conditions, severe weather, and a concern for some flash flooding... ...There is critical to extreme fire weather danger across much of the Southern High Plains going through the early to middle part of the week... ...Much above normal temperatures across the Midwest will move into the Eastern U.S. by midweek, with below normal temperatures over the West gradually reaching the Plains... ...New Pacific storm system to arrive on Wednesday across California... A low pressure system will be rapidly strengthening tonight and Tuesday across the central Plains, with a very deep low center then tracking across the Midwest Tuesday night, and then across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Widespread hazardous weather is expected with this storm system through midweek which will include heavy snowfall impacting the central Rockies tonight and Tuesday where as much as 1 to 2 feet of new snowfall can be expected. However, on the cold side of the storm system as it intensifies and moves east, a swath of heavy snow and very strong winds will develop across the central High Plains to the upper Midwest for Tuesday and Wednesday. A swath of 4 to 8 inches of new snowfall is generally expected, with locally as much as 1 foot of snow possible through Wednesday before the storm system pulls away. The very strong winds combined with the snow will result in blizzard conditions which will result in very difficult travel conditions and poor visibility. Farther south on the warmer and drier side of this storm, much of the southern High Plains region including New Mexico, southeast Colorado, southwest Kansas, and much of western Oklahoma and western Texas will be seeing the arrival of very strong and damaging winds this evening and into the overnight period along with very dry air/low relative humidities. Unfortunately, this will result in critical to extreme fire weather danger with large areas of New Mexico and western Texas seeing the greatest wildfire threat. An elevated to critical fire danger threat will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday across areas of eastern New Mexico and much of western Texas as locally strong gusty winds and very dry air persists. Meanwhile, farther east across the southern Plains and toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South region, the concern will be severe weather as strong southerly winds bring Gulf moisture and instability northward. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and through the overnight hours across the southern Plains with an emphasis on the Red River Valley of the South where the Storm Prediction Center has now highlighted an Elevated Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather. Thunderstorms are expected to bring potentially several tornadoes along with a threat of large hail and damaging winds. This severe weather threat will likely broaden in scale and magnitude on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the low center drives a strong cold front rapidly eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South and Gulf Coast region. In fact, an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather is now depicted for a large area from the Arklatex down to the central Gulf Coast where there will be concerns for very strong damaging winds, tornadoes, and at least some areas of large hail. On Wednesday, heavy showers and thunderstorms will advance east into the Mid-Atlantic states and Southeast as the cold front arrives, and there is currently a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather depicted here which will mainly be for damaging winds and potentially a few tornadoes. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern for areas of the Midwest and down into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South region on Tuesday and there may be at least isolated areas of flash flooding as a result. The Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for portions of these areas with some of this also overlapping the aforementioned severe weather threat areas. Temperatures will be highly changeable going through the middle of the week due to the storm, with much above normal temperatures over the Midwest moving east into the Eastern U.S. by Tuesday and Wednesday as these areas will generally be on the warm side of the rapidly approaching upstream storm system. However, colder air and below normal temperatures that are already generally situated over the West will then overspread the Plains on the back side of the strong low center. Finally, a new storm system will arrive across California on Wednesday which will bring a new round of locally heavy rainfall and especially for the coastal ranges. However, this will translate into heavy snowfall over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php