Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 302 PM EST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 00Z Wed Mar 05 2025 - 00Z Fri Mar 07 2025 ...A major winter storm will continue to bring widespread hazards through Wednesday night, including damaging winds, blizzard conditions, severe weather, and localized flash flooding... ...There is critical to extreme fire weather danger across much of the Southern High Plains going through the middle part of the week... ...Much above normal temperatures across the Midwest will move into the Eastern U.S. by midweek, with below normal temperatures over the West gradually reaching the Plains... ...Pacific storm set to bring widespread valley rain and mountain snow across California, the Great Basin, and the Intermountain West Wednesday into Friday... Widespread hazardous weather is expected across the central U.S. as a deepening low pressure system continues its trek through the Central Plains this afternoon and evening, across the Midwest by tonight, and through the Great Lakes region Wednesday into Wednesday night. On the cold side of the storm, a large swath of moderate to locally heavy snow will result in accumulations of 6 to 12 inches from parts of Iowa to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The rapid deepening of the low pressure system will lead to very strong winds, with widespread gusts of 50 to 70 mph. The strong winds combined with falling and blowing snow will lead to a vast area of blizzard conditions. Given the potential for whiteouts and life threatening travel conditions, blizzard warnings are in effect from portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota through Wednesday. Farther south on the warmer and drier side of this storm, much of the Southern High Plains region including New Mexico, southeast Colorado, southwest Kansas, and much of western Oklahoma and western Texas will have critical to extreme fire weather conditions through midweek as the very strong winds increase the threat for the development and spread of wildfires. For additional details, refer to the the Fire Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. On the warm and moist side of the storm to the south and east, severe weather will be a major concern as strong southerly winds bring Gulf moisture and instability northward. Combined with the forcing from a strong cold front, the environment will be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Central Gulf Coast to the Southeast and Tennessee Valley through this evening and overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a broad Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for these areas given the main threats of very strong to damaging winds, a few potentially strong tornadoes, and at least some areas of large hail. Heavy rainfall will also be a concern for areas of the Midwest southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South region through this evening and there may be at least isolated areas of flash flooding as a result. Given the above, the Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for portions of these areas. The focus and risk areas for severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will shift to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast region on Wednesday as the potent system continues tracking eastward. A broad Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather was maintained by the Storm Prediction Center from Pennsylvania southward to northeastern Florida. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center depicted a new Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) from southeast Virginia to eastern South Carolina. The strongest storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and even a couple tornadoes. Fast storm motions will lead to less of a concern for flash flooding, but localized issues stemming from heavy downpours can still occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Meanwhile, a Pacific storm system will bring widespread valley rain and high elevation snow to much of California, the Great Basin, and the Intermountain West from Wednesday through Friday. Snow totals in excess of 1 to 2 feet will be possible across favored peaks in the Sierras and Rockies. Temperatures will be highly changeable going through the middle of the week due to the storm, with much above normal temperatures over the Midwest moving east into the Eastern U.S. through Wednesday as these areas will generally be on the warm side of the rapidly approaching upstream storm system. However, colder air and below normal temperatures that are already generally situated over the West will then overspread the Plains on the back side of the strong low center. Miller/Campbell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php