Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 00Z Wed Mar 12 2025 - 00Z Fri Mar 14 2025 ...Storm systems brings unsettled weather to the West... ...Severe Weather potential over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk over parts of the Southern High Plains through the rest of the week... ...Warmth will prevail across the Central and Eastern U.S.... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon across Southern California and Arizona ahead of an potent upper-level low and surface low pressure moving through the region. The threat for some isolated flooding will continue for sensitive areas of terrain and urban areas through the evening as a quick couple of inches of rainfall could fall in any locally heavy thunderstorm. The next storm system will affect the West Coast Wednesday and Thursday as a weak atmospheric river sets up ahead of a strong trough/cold front moving into the region. The rainfall rates could be as high as a couple of inches over a few hours despite the system being fairly progressive. Most of the California coastline has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday, and Southern California has a targeted Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday and Thursday for urban areas and areas of terrain for Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties. In addition to the rainfall, other hazards will be high winds and winter storm conditions across areas of high elevation. The Weather Prediction Center key message is highlighting hazardous wind gusts as high as 40-70 mph with heavy snow accumulations of 1-3 feet in the Sierra Nevada and northern California terrain. There will be widespread hazardous travel over much of this region, and the threat will move eastward as heavy snow falls across Intermountain West for Thursday and Friday. The upper-low and attendant cold front will traverse across the Southwest and move towards the southern Plains on Wednesday. The combination of cooler air aloft with returning moisture near the surface will lead to the potential for severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of the Arklatex region under a Slight Risk with the main hazards being in the form of large hail and strong, damaging winds. The chance for locally strong thunderstorms then moves towards the Southeast on Thursday with similar threats of hail and damaging winds, but at a Marginal Risk level. The next two days also features a Critical Fire Weather Outlook across the southern Plains and Southwest U.S. Gusty winds, nearing 40 mph, and low relative humidities will create favorable conditions for wildfires. Be cautious when operating with fire and listen to local authorities on burn notice guidelines. Lastly,above seasonal average temperatures will be a big storyline across the central and southern U.S. This will be courtesy of warm air streaming in from the south ahead of a large trough moving across the western U.S and high pressure controlling much of the Southeast. 70s and 80s will be abundant from Nebraska to Texas to Florida. On Thursday, some stations could pass daily record high temperatures in the northern Plains and in Texas. By Friday, high temperatures could be as warm as the middle 90s across parts of central and southern Texas. Elsewhere across the nation, a stationary boundary will be setting up near the Midwest and Ohio Valley, which will generally separate high temperatures in the 40s and 50s north of the boundary from the 60s and 70s south of the boundary. A cold front will push through New England and the Northeast on Wednesday. High temperatures will be chilly in the 30s and 40s, and low temperatures will be in the 30s and 20s along the urban corridor with locally colder low temperatures in New England and Maine. Wilder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php