Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 326 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 13 2025 - 00Z Sat Mar 15 2025 ...Severe Weather potential over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today... ...Storm system brings unsettled weather to the West... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk over parts of the Southern High Plains for the rest of the week... ...Warm temperatures across the Central and Eastern U.S.... A vigorous shortwave and surface low pressure system is tracking across the Southern Plains today which will lead to showers and thunderstorm developing this evening across the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley region. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, western Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana where large hail and localized wind damage are possible beginning this afternoon and continuing into early Thursday morning. For the West, an amplified upper trough will move ashore today, spreading Pacific moisture, cooler air and strong winds across the region. Powerful wind gusts of 40 to 70 mph combined with heavy snow will create treacherous to potentially impossible travel below many major passes across the Sierra Nevada and northern California higher terrain into Thursday. Snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 feet, possibly higher, along with the high winds could cause scattered power outages. Heavy snow above 5000 feet and high winds will cause widespread hazardous travel over much of the southern Intermountain West and Rockies Thursday into Friday. Periods of heavy rain with rates of 0.5"/hr are likely in parts of southern California through Thursday morning will keep an elevated threat for flash flooding, including shallow debris flows across sensitive burn scars or isolated rock slides, as well as hazardous travel due to ponding of water and slick roads. Persistent dry, warm and windy conditions will promote Critical Fire Weather conditions across the Southern High Plains through the rest of the week. Upper-level ridging will support above average temperatures across the Central and Eastern U.S. for the next few days. High temperatures in the 50s, 60s and 70s over the Midwest and Northern Plains will represent 20 - 40 degree anomalies through the end of the work week. Campbell/Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php