Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 314 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 13 2025 - 12Z Sat Mar 15 2025 ...Severe Weather outbreak probable across Mississippi Valley and parts of Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Friday... ...Storm system brings unsettled weather to the West... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk over parts of the Southern Plains for the rest of the week... ...Warm temperatures across the Central and Eastern U.S.... A powerful upper trough will bring damaging winds, heavy mountain snow, heavy rainfall and cooler temperatures to much of the West through the end of this week. Heavy snow and powerful wind gusts of 40-70 mph below many major passes will create dangerous to potentially impossible travel conditions across the Sierra Nevada and northern California higher terrain today. An additional 1-2+ feet of snow which, along with high winds, could cause scattered power outages. Additionally, heavy rain may cause flash flooding across portions of southern California through tonight. Heavy snow above 5000 feet and strong winds will cause widespread hazardous travel in the southern Intermountain West and Rockies today and Friday. Rapid strengthening of the system as it tracks northeast over the Great Plains Friday to Saturday will result in widespread high winds with increasing coverage of snow. Areas of blowing snow and possibly blizzard conditions may cause dangerous travel due to low visibility. A wintry mix is also possible for parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. The aforementioned system that brings blizzard conditions to the Plains on Friday is also expected to produce a severe weather outbreak across much of the Mississippi Valley and parts of the western Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across eastern Missouri, far southeast Iowa, central and southern Illinois, far western Kentucky, far northwest Tennessee and extreme northeast Arkansas, where widespread damaging winds (some greater than 65 kts), several tornadoes (some strong) and large hail will all be possible late Friday afternoon and evening. This sprawling and dynamic system will also pull warm, dry air from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains where tightening pressure gradient will generate strong winds and the potential for fire weather. The Storm Prediction Center issued Critical Fire Weather Risk area across much of the Southern Plains through the weekend as a result. Red Flag warnings and High Wind Warnings are also in effect for much of the Southern High Plains. Deep southerly flow into the Plains out ahead of the emerging dynamic system will lead to potentially record breaking temperatures for parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and southeast Texas through Friday. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s over the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains will represent 20-40 degree departures from average. Highs in the 80s and 90s over Texas will represent 20-30 degree anomalies. This warm air pushes into the East Coast this weekend. High temperatures remain well below average in the West beneath the amplified upper trough late this week. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php