Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 00Z Fri Mar 14 2025 - 00Z Sun Mar 16 2025 ...Dangerous severe weather outbreak expected across Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley on Friday; severe weather outbreak likely in the Mid-South on Saturday... ...Storm system brings unsettled weather to the West... ...Critical Fire Weather Risk over parts of the Southern Plains for the rest of the week... ...Warm temperatures across the Central and Eastern U.S.... A powerful upper level trough traversing the West today will be responsible for producing a plethora of weather hazards through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Through tonight, heavy mountain snow and strong wind gusts are expected throughout the Rockies and as far west as the Sierra Nevada. Over a foot of snowfall is forecast through Friday morning in the central and southern Rockies, while wind gusts in parts of the Southwest range between 40-70 mph. The storm system then reaches the Great Plains on Friday with barometric pressure values deepening to near-record lows for March. The weather hazard with the biggest footprint of impacts is the wind field. Wind gusts exceeding 50 mph are forecast from the Rockies and Great Plains to as far east as the western Great Lakes through Saturday afternoon. On the northern side of the storm track Friday night, a wintry mix transitioning to periods of snow will envelope over parts of the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota and continue through Saturday afternoon. Combined with the strong wind gusts associated with the storm, there is the potential for blizzard conditions that result in dangerous travel conditions. On the warm side of this storm, several more weather hazards are anticipated both Friday and Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for the Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday all modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, hail) on the table. In fact, the Slight Risk areas (level 2/5) stretches from just south of of the Twin Cities to just north of the central Gulf Coast. By Saturday, the severe weather threat heads east to the Ohio Valley on south to the Gulf Coast. SPC has yet another Moderate Risk (level 4/5) in the heart of the Mid-South with a Slight Risk area (level 2/5) that reaches as far north as Ohio's northeastern coast of Lake Erie. Intense storms from Louisiana to the Tennessee Valley would be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and hail. Expect these storms to be fast movers, making it essential to have a reliable means of receiving warnings when issued and to not wait to see or hear the signs of a severe storm. There is also a threat for flash flooding in parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Saturday. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (threat level 2/4) for these regions on Saturday. Plus, SPC has an expansive Critical Risk for their Fire Weather Outlook on Friday for most of the Southern Plains, with an Extreme Risk located from northern Texas and central Oklahoma to southern Kansas. Look for potentially critical fire weather conditions to continue in western and southern Texas on Saturday. This storm system will also produce a strong temperature contrast from the West to the East Coast. With troughing aloft continuing over the West into Saturday (more rain and mountain snow expected in the Pacific Northwest on Saturday), temperatures will be colder than normal from the West Coast to the Front Range of the Rockies through Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong spring-like surge of warmth will engulf much of the eastern U.S.. High temperature anomalies of 20-30 degrees above normal are forecast in the Midwest and Great Lakes on Friday with some areas seeing record breaking high temps. As far south as South Texas, daytime highs will be more summer-like with highs approaching the century mark. Spring-like warmth will be common east of the Mississippi River on Saturday with numerous record warm minimum temperatures and daytime highs anywhere from 10-20 degrees above normal. Mullinax Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php